**Trader consensus strongly favors a minimum temperature of 22°C or higher on August 26 in Jinan (96.5% implied probability), consistent with late-summer climatology and current forecasts.** August averages in Jinan show daily lows declining gradually from ~24°C early in the month to ~21°C by month-end, with 10th–90th percentile ranges rarely dipping below 18°C. Official monitoring and short-range models (including recent runs) project overnight lows near 24°C for the 26th under typical subtropical high pressure, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation—conditions that suppress radiative cooling. Historical analogs confirm minimums below 22°C occur infrequently in the final week of August absent a strong cold-air intrusion from the north. The low probabilities assigned to outcomes of 21°C and below reflect the absence of any supporting synoptic signals in the latest guidance. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves an unforecasted late-season frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover and rain, though model consensus shows high confidence against such developments within the next 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Jinan on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Jinan on August 26?
22°C or higher 97%
20°C 48%
16°C 43%
18°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
12°C or below
23%
13°C
17%
14°C
14%
15°C
25%
16°C
43%
17°C
13%
18°C
43%
19°C
27%
20°C
48%
21°C
28%
22°C or higher
97%
22°C or higher 97%
20°C 48%
16°C 43%
18°C 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
23%
13°C
$0 Vol.
17%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C
$0 Vol.
25%
16°C
$0 Vol.
43%
17°C
$0 Vol.
13%
18°C
$0 Vol.
43%
19°C
$0 Vol.
27%
20°C
$0 Vol.
48%
21°C
$0 Vol.
28%
22°C or higher
$240 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a minimum temperature of 22°C or higher on August 26 in Jinan (96.5% implied probability), consistent with late-summer climatology and current forecasts.**
August averages in Jinan show daily lows declining gradually from ~24°C early in the month to ~21°C by month-end, with 10th–90th percentile ranges rarely dipping below 18°C. Official monitoring and short-range models (including recent runs) project overnight lows near 24°C for the 26th under typical subtropical high pressure, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation—conditions that suppress radiative cooling. Historical analogs confirm minimums below 22°C occur infrequently in the final week of August absent a strong cold-air intrusion from the north.
The low probabilities assigned to outcomes of 21°C and below reflect the absence of any supporting synoptic signals in the latest guidance. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves an unforecasted late-season frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover and rain, though model consensus shows high confidence against such developments within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$240End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus strongly favors a minimum temperature of 22°C or higher on August 26 in Jinan (96.5% implied probability), consistent with late-summer climatology and current forecasts.**
August averages in Jinan show daily lows declining gradually from ~24°C early in the month to ~21°C by month-end, with 10th–90th percentile ranges rarely dipping below 18°C. Official monitoring and short-range models (including recent runs) project overnight lows near 24°C for the 26th under typical subtropical high pressure, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation—conditions that suppress radiative cooling. Historical analogs confirm minimums below 22°C occur infrequently in the final week of August absent a strong cold-air intrusion from the north.
The low probabilities assigned to outcomes of 21°C and below reflect the absence of any supporting synoptic signals in the latest guidance. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves an unforecasted late-season frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover and rain, though model consensus shows high confidence against such developments within the next 24–48 hours.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$240End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus strongly favors a minimum temperature of 22°C or higher on August 26 in Jinan (96.5% implied probability), consistent with late-summer climatology and current forecasts.** August averages in Jinan show daily lows declining gradually from ~24°C early in the month to ~21°C by month-end, with 10th–90th percentile ranges rarely dipping below 18°C. Official monitoring and short-range models (including recent runs) project overnight lows near 24°C for the 26th under typical subtropical high pressure, light southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover or precipitation—conditions that suppress radiative cooling. Historical analogs confirm minimums below 22°C occur infrequently in the final week of August absent a strong cold-air intrusion from the north. The low probabilities assigned to outcomes of 21°C and below reflect the absence of any supporting synoptic signals in the latest guidance. A realistic scenario that could shift odds involves an unforecasted late-season frontal passage or enhanced cloud cover and rain, though model consensus shows high confidence against such developments within the next 24–48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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