Strong model consensus and late-summer climatology underpin the 99.1% market-implied probability for a Jinan high of 26°C or higher on August 26. Regional forecasts project afternoon maxima of 30–36°C, consistent with the gradual late-August decline from early-month peaks near 32°C and the ongoing influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Historical observations place typical highs for the period well above the threshold, with only rare excursions below 28°C. The sole realistic challenge would require an unexpected strong cold front or persistent heavy overcast to suppress temperatures, though current atmospheric patterns show no such development and official guidance through the 26th continues to favor warm conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on August 26?
Highest temperature in Jinan on August 26?
26°C or higher 99.0%
25°C 2%
24°C <1%
16°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
2%
26°C or higher
99%
26°C or higher 99.0%
25°C 2%
24°C <1%
16°C or below <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
16°C or below
$40 Vol.
1%
17°C
$40 Vol.
1%
18°C
$40 Vol.
1%
19°C
$40 Vol.
1%
20°C
$40 Vol.
1%
21°C
$40 Vol.
1%
22°C
$40 Vol.
1%
23°C
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$0 Vol.
1%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C or higher
$41 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus and late-summer climatology underpin the 99.1% market-implied probability for a Jinan high of 26°C or higher on August 26. Regional forecasts project afternoon maxima of 30–36°C, consistent with the gradual late-August decline from early-month peaks near 32°C and the ongoing influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Historical observations place typical highs for the period well above the threshold, with only rare excursions below 28°C. The sole realistic challenge would require an unexpected strong cold front or persistent heavy overcast to suppress temperatures, though current atmospheric patterns show no such development and official guidance through the 26th continues to favor warm conditions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 25, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$321End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus and late-summer climatology underpin the 99.1% market-implied probability for a Jinan high of 26°C or higher on August 26. Regional forecasts project afternoon maxima of 30–36°C, consistent with the gradual late-August decline from early-month peaks near 32°C and the ongoing influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Historical observations place typical highs for the period well above the threshold, with only rare excursions below 28°C. The sole realistic challenge would require an unexpected strong cold front or persistent heavy overcast to suppress temperatures, though current atmospheric patterns show no such development and official guidance through the 26th continues to favor warm conditions.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$321End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 25, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong model consensus and late-summer climatology underpin the 99.1% market-implied probability for a Jinan high of 26°C or higher on August 26. Regional forecasts project afternoon maxima of 30–36°C, consistent with the gradual late-August decline from early-month peaks near 32°C and the ongoing influence of the western Pacific subtropical high. Historical observations place typical highs for the period well above the threshold, with only rare excursions below 28°C. The sole realistic challenge would require an unexpected strong cold front or persistent heavy overcast to suppress temperatures, though current atmospheric patterns show no such development and official guidance through the 26th continues to favor warm conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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