Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 will likely settle between 16°C and 18°C, driven by moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following daytime highs near 30–31°C. Light southerly winds shifting northeast, combined with dew points around 16–18°C and humidity near 50–70%, limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while the urban heat island effect provides a slight buffer against colder rural readings. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical early-autumn variability in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, keeping 16°C and 17°C as the tightly contested market leaders with near-even implied probabilities. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
16°C 100%
14°C 90%
15°C 90%
17°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
90%
15°C
90%
16°C
100%
17°C
50%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 100%
14°C 90%
15°C 90%
17°C 50%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
13°C or below
$100 Vol.
1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
90%
15°C
$0 Vol.
90%
16°C
$0 Vol.
100%
17°C
$6 Vol.
50%
18°C
$253 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$153 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$215 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 will likely settle between 16°C and 18°C, driven by moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following daytime highs near 30–31°C. Light southerly winds shifting northeast, combined with dew points around 16–18°C and humidity near 50–70%, limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while the urban heat island effect provides a slight buffer against colder rural readings. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical early-autumn variability in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, keeping 16°C and 17°C as the tightly contested market leaders with near-even implied probabilities. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$902End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 will likely settle between 16°C and 18°C, driven by moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following daytime highs near 30–31°C. Light southerly winds shifting northeast, combined with dew points around 16–18°C and humidity near 50–70%, limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while the urban heat island effect provides a slight buffer against colder rural readings. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical early-autumn variability in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, keeping 16°C and 17°C as the tightly contested market leaders with near-even implied probabilities. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$902End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources indicate Beijing's overnight minimum on September 23 will likely settle between 16°C and 18°C, driven by moderate radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies following daytime highs near 30–31°C. Light southerly winds shifting northeast, combined with dew points around 16–18°C and humidity near 50–70%, limit further nocturnal temperature drops, while the urban heat island effect provides a slight buffer against colder rural readings. Ensemble model spreads reflect typical early-autumn variability in boundary-layer mixing and cloud cover timing, keeping 16°C and 17°C as the tightly contested market leaders with near-even implied probabilities. Updated runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration will refine the exact minimum before midnight local time.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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