Recent official forecasts from agencies and models including GFS consensus project Beijing's September 23 high near 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and low precipitation risk, supporting the market's 54% implied probability on 32°C. Multiple runs show afternoon peaks reaching or slightly exceeding 31°C but rarely pushing to 33°C without unexpected warming or reduced cloud cover. Historical September baselines around 24–26°C provide context for the current elevated readings driven by persistent high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between leading outcomes against typical model uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, with 33°C as the main alternative if daytime heating strengthens. Updated model guidance and local observations before resolution will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 23?
32°C 53%
33°C 29%
31°C 16%
30°C 5%
NEW
$27,427 Vol.
NEW
$27,427 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
26°C or below
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
5%
31°C
16%
32°C
53%
33°C
29%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
32°C 53%
33°C 29%
31°C 16%
30°C 5%
NEW
$27,427 Vol.
NEW
$27,427 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
26°C or below
$1,212 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,823 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,902 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,087 Vol.
2%
30°C
$1,353 Vol.
5%
31°C
$7,560 Vol.
16%
32°C
$4,698 Vol.
53%
33°C
$4,453 Vol.
29%
34°C
$1,888 Vol.
1%
35°C
$262 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$188 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies and models including GFS consensus project Beijing's September 23 high near 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and low precipitation risk, supporting the market's 54% implied probability on 32°C. Multiple runs show afternoon peaks reaching or slightly exceeding 31°C but rarely pushing to 33°C without unexpected warming or reduced cloud cover. Historical September baselines around 24–26°C provide context for the current elevated readings driven by persistent high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between leading outcomes against typical model uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, with 33°C as the main alternative if daytime heating strengthens. Updated model guidance and local observations before resolution will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$27,427End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from agencies and models including GFS consensus project Beijing's September 23 high near 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and low precipitation risk, supporting the market's 54% implied probability on 32°C. Multiple runs show afternoon peaks reaching or slightly exceeding 31°C but rarely pushing to 33°C without unexpected warming or reduced cloud cover. Historical September baselines around 24–26°C provide context for the current elevated readings driven by persistent high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between leading outcomes against typical model uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, with 33°C as the main alternative if daytime heating strengthens. Updated model guidance and local observations before resolution will likely refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$27,427End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from agencies and models including GFS consensus project Beijing's September 23 high near 30–32°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and low precipitation risk, supporting the market's 54% implied probability on 32°C. Multiple runs show afternoon peaks reaching or slightly exceeding 31°C but rarely pushing to 33°C without unexpected warming or reduced cloud cover. Historical September baselines around 24–26°C provide context for the current elevated readings driven by persistent high pressure. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between leading outcomes against typical model uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, with 33°C as the main alternative if daytime heating strengthens. Updated model guidance and local observations before resolution will likely refine these odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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