Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 27–28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under partly cloudy skies with only a slight rain chance, directly supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. This aligns with typical late-September climatology after recent cooler, wetter conditions earlier in the month, as northerly flow and modest humidity limit further warming while preventing sharp cooling. Model agreement remains high with minimal spread in maximum temperature guidance, though minor revisions could occur with updated runs ahead of the 24-hour forecast window. Official Japan Meteorological Agency observations on the day will resolve the market based on the recorded peak at the Tokyo station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
27°C 35%
28°C 26%
26°C 22%
29°C 11%
NEW
$10,298 Vol.
NEW
$10,298 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
5%
26°C
22%
27°C
35%
28°C
26%
29°C
11%
30°C
4%
31°C
2%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
27°C 35%
28°C 26%
26°C 22%
29°C 11%
NEW
$10,298 Vol.
NEW
$10,298 Vol.
Sep 24, 2026
23°C or below
$147 Vol.
1%
24°C
$228 Vol.
1%
25°C
$319 Vol.
5%
26°C
$1,811 Vol.
22%
27°C
$649 Vol.
35%
28°C
$3,374 Vol.
26%
29°C
$2,515 Vol.
11%
30°C
$262 Vol.
4%
31°C
$261 Vol.
2%
32°C
$717 Vol.
<1%
33°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 27–28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under partly cloudy skies with only a slight rain chance, directly supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. This aligns with typical late-September climatology after recent cooler, wetter conditions earlier in the month, as northerly flow and modest humidity limit further warming while preventing sharp cooling. Model agreement remains high with minimal spread in maximum temperature guidance, though minor revisions could occur with updated runs ahead of the 24-hour forecast window. Official Japan Meteorological Agency observations on the day will resolve the market based on the recorded peak at the Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,298End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 27–28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under partly cloudy skies with only a slight rain chance, directly supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. This aligns with typical late-September climatology after recent cooler, wetter conditions earlier in the month, as northerly flow and modest humidity limit further warming while preventing sharp cooling. Model agreement remains high with minimal spread in maximum temperature guidance, though minor revisions could occur with updated runs ahead of the 24-hour forecast window. Official Japan Meteorological Agency observations on the day will resolve the market based on the recorded peak at the Tokyo station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,298End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from global and regional models points to a daytime high of 27–28°C in Tokyo on September 24 under partly cloudy skies with only a slight rain chance, directly supporting the market’s leading implied probabilities for those exact outcomes. This aligns with typical late-September climatology after recent cooler, wetter conditions earlier in the month, as northerly flow and modest humidity limit further warming while preventing sharp cooling. Model agreement remains high with minimal spread in maximum temperature guidance, though minor revisions could occur with updated runs ahead of the 24-hour forecast window. Official Japan Meteorological Agency observations on the day will resolve the market based on the recorded peak at the Tokyo station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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