Current forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 20–22°C in Tokyo on September 24, with 21°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 45.5%. Persistent northerly flow and residual moisture from recent frontal passages are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and light winds reduce the potential for sharper drops below 20°C. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 18–20°C, but the current pattern of stable high pressure and modest advection favors slightly milder conditions. Updated short-range model runs and evening observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 24?
21°C 46%
22°C 25%
20°C 12%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
1%
18°C
9%
19°C
9%
20°C
12%
21°C
46%
22°C
33%
23°C
5%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 46%
22°C 25%
20°C 12%
18°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
17°C
$0 Vol.
1%
18°C
$0 Vol.
9%
19°C
$39 Vol.
9%
20°C
$181 Vol.
12%
21°C
$659 Vol.
46%
22°C
$794 Vol.
33%
23°C
$99 Vol.
5%
24°C
$51 Vol.
2%
25°C
$0 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 20–22°C in Tokyo on September 24, with 21°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 45.5%. Persistent northerly flow and residual moisture from recent frontal passages are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and light winds reduce the potential for sharper drops below 20°C. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 18–20°C, but the current pattern of stable high pressure and modest advection favors slightly milder conditions. Updated short-range model runs and evening observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$1,823End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 20–22°C in Tokyo on September 24, with 21°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 45.5%. Persistent northerly flow and residual moisture from recent frontal passages are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and light winds reduce the potential for sharper drops below 20°C. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 18–20°C, but the current pattern of stable high pressure and modest advection favors slightly milder conditions. Updated short-range model runs and evening observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,823End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast consensus from the Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble models points to a minimum temperature of 20–22°C in Tokyo on September 24, with 21°C holding the strongest market-implied probability at 45.5%. Persistent northerly flow and residual moisture from recent frontal passages are limiting nighttime radiative cooling, while increasing cloud cover and light winds reduce the potential for sharper drops below 20°C. Historical September climatology shows typical overnight lows near 18–20°C, but the current pattern of stable high pressure and modest advection favors slightly milder conditions. Updated short-range model runs and evening observations over the next 48 hours will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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