Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project Tokyo's overnight low near 24–25°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, yet trader consensus centers on 26°C (62.5% implied probability) ahead of 27°C (31.0%). Persistent high humidity, urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure, and light winds limit radiational cooling overnight, elevating minimums above seasonal normals of 23–24°C. Ensemble model spreads introduce minor uncertainty around intensification of showers or slight clearing, while historical August climatology shows frequent 25–27°C lows during similar synoptic patterns. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations will refine resolution thresholds as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 21?
26°C 75%
27°C 31%
25°C 9%
23°C <1%
$14,556 Vol.
$14,556 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
9%
26°C
63%
27°C
28%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 75%
27°C 31%
25°C 9%
23°C <1%
$14,556 Vol.
$14,556 Vol.
Aug 21, 2026
21°C or below
$643 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,423 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,038 Vol.
1%
24°C
$1,383 Vol.
1%
25°C
$772 Vol.
9%
26°C
$2,014 Vol.
63%
27°C
$926 Vol.
28%
28°C
$1,610 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,327 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,253 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$1,168 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project Tokyo's overnight low near 24–25°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, yet trader consensus centers on 26°C (62.5% implied probability) ahead of 27°C (31.0%). Persistent high humidity, urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure, and light winds limit radiational cooling overnight, elevating minimums above seasonal normals of 23–24°C. Ensemble model spreads introduce minor uncertainty around intensification of showers or slight clearing, while historical August climatology shows frequent 25–27°C lows during similar synoptic patterns. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations will refine resolution thresholds as the day progresses.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$14,556End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project Tokyo's overnight low near 24–25°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, yet trader consensus centers on 26°C (62.5% implied probability) ahead of 27°C (31.0%). Persistent high humidity, urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure, and light winds limit radiational cooling overnight, elevating minimums above seasonal normals of 23–24°C. Ensemble model spreads introduce minor uncertainty around intensification of showers or slight clearing, while historical August climatology shows frequent 25–27°C lows during similar synoptic patterns. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations will refine resolution thresholds as the day progresses.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,556End Date
Aug 21, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts project Tokyo's overnight low near 24–25°C on August 21 under mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers, yet trader consensus centers on 26°C (62.5% implied probability) ahead of 27°C (31.0%). Persistent high humidity, urban heat island effects from dense infrastructure, and light winds limit radiational cooling overnight, elevating minimums above seasonal normals of 23–24°C. Ensemble model spreads introduce minor uncertainty around intensification of showers or slight clearing, while historical August climatology shows frequent 25–27°C lows during similar synoptic patterns. Updated short-range guidance and real-time observations will refine resolution thresholds as the day progresses.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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