Recent National Weather Service model consensus and observations point to a highest temperature near 67–69°F in San Francisco on August 14, driven by a deep marine layer and persistent onshore flow that maintains stratus clouds and limits daytime heating along the coast. This setup produces well-below-normal highs for mid-August, with the strength of the sea breeze and any afternoon clearing determining whether readings settle at 68–69°F or edge into the low 70s. Traders’ near-even split between those two bins reflects uncertainty in exact wind speeds and cloud dissipation timing, while lower-probability outcomes account for potential model shifts or localized warming. Official resolution relies on the KSFO airport station reading.