Latest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS, alongside DWD runs, converges on a Munich high of 16–17°C for September 24 under moderate westerly to northwesterly flow, increased low-to-mid cloud cover, and limited warm advection that caps afternoon insolation. This setup favors the 17°C outcome at 38.5% market-implied odds, followed closely by 16°C, as models show only modest spread around these values rather than stronger warming or cooling signals. Historical September maxima near 19°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions suppress peaks relative to climatology. Final overnight model updates and DWD observations remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 24?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 24?
17°C 39%
16°C 27%
18°C 19%
15°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
12°C or below
2%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
8%
16°C
27%
17°C
39%
18°C
19%
19°C
6%
20°C
3%
21°C
1%
22°C or higher
<1%
17°C 39%
16°C 27%
18°C 19%
15°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
13°C
$40 Vol.
2%
14°C
$17 Vol.
3%
15°C
$45 Vol.
8%
16°C
$543 Vol.
27%
17°C
$704 Vol.
39%
18°C
$138 Vol.
19%
19°C
$175 Vol.
6%
20°C
$31 Vol.
3%
21°C
$1 Vol.
1%
22°C or higher
$100 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS, alongside DWD runs, converges on a Munich high of 16–17°C for September 24 under moderate westerly to northwesterly flow, increased low-to-mid cloud cover, and limited warm advection that caps afternoon insolation. This setup favors the 17°C outcome at 38.5% market-implied odds, followed closely by 16°C, as models show only modest spread around these values rather than stronger warming or cooling signals. Historical September maxima near 19°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions suppress peaks relative to climatology. Final overnight model updates and DWD observations remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,794End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS, alongside DWD runs, converges on a Munich high of 16–17°C for September 24 under moderate westerly to northwesterly flow, increased low-to-mid cloud cover, and limited warm advection that caps afternoon insolation. This setup favors the 17°C outcome at 38.5% market-implied odds, followed closely by 16°C, as models show only modest spread around these values rather than stronger warming or cooling signals. Historical September maxima near 19°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions suppress peaks relative to climatology. Final overnight model updates and DWD observations remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,794End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS, alongside DWD runs, converges on a Munich high of 16–17°C for September 24 under moderate westerly to northwesterly flow, increased low-to-mid cloud cover, and limited warm advection that caps afternoon insolation. This setup favors the 17°C outcome at 38.5% market-implied odds, followed closely by 16°C, as models show only modest spread around these values rather than stronger warming or cooling signals. Historical September maxima near 19°C provide context, yet current synoptic conditions suppress peaks relative to climatology. Final overnight model updates and DWD observations remain the key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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