Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is driving the near-even split between the 2°C-or-below and 12°C-or-higher outcomes for Munich’s minimum temperature on September 24. Ensemble guidance shows variability in low-level cold-air advection and nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, with differences in boundary-layer wind and moisture profiles able to shift the overnight low by several degrees. Late-September climatology features increasing potential for polar air intrusions across central Europe, yet model consensus remains split on whether a stronger high-pressure ridge or lingering Atlantic moisture will dominate. New 00Z and 12Z runs from ECMWF and ICON, plus updated observational data from surface stations, will refine the temperature trajectory ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Munich on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Munich on September 24?
12°C or higher 96%
2°C or below 94%
6°C 40%
9°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
2°C or below
94%
3°C
17%
4°C
20%
5°C
24%
6°C
40%
7°C
37%
8°C
8%
9°C
38%
10°C
38%
11°C
38%
12°C or higher
96%
12°C or higher 96%
2°C or below 94%
6°C 40%
9°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
2°C or below
$0 Vol.
94%
3°C
$0 Vol.
17%
4°C
$0 Vol.
20%
5°C
$0 Vol.
24%
6°C
$0 Vol.
40%
7°C
$0 Vol.
37%
8°C
$116 Vol.
8%
9°C
$0 Vol.
38%
10°C
$0 Vol.
38%
11°C
$0 Vol.
38%
12°C or higher
$0 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is driving the near-even split between the 2°C-or-below and 12°C-or-higher outcomes for Munich’s minimum temperature on September 24. Ensemble guidance shows variability in low-level cold-air advection and nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, with differences in boundary-layer wind and moisture profiles able to shift the overnight low by several degrees. Late-September climatology features increasing potential for polar air intrusions across central Europe, yet model consensus remains split on whether a stronger high-pressure ridge or lingering Atlantic moisture will dominate. New 00Z and 12Z runs from ECMWF and ICON, plus updated observational data from surface stations, will refine the temperature trajectory ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$116End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is driving the near-even split between the 2°C-or-below and 12°C-or-higher outcomes for Munich’s minimum temperature on September 24. Ensemble guidance shows variability in low-level cold-air advection and nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, with differences in boundary-layer wind and moisture profiles able to shift the overnight low by several degrees. Late-September climatology features increasing potential for polar air intrusions across central Europe, yet model consensus remains split on whether a stronger high-pressure ridge or lingering Atlantic moisture will dominate. New 00Z and 12Z runs from ECMWF and ICON, plus updated observational data from surface stations, will refine the temperature trajectory ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$116End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast uncertainty in short-range numerical weather prediction models is driving the near-even split between the 2°C-or-below and 12°C-or-higher outcomes for Munich’s minimum temperature on September 24. Ensemble guidance shows variability in low-level cold-air advection and nocturnal radiative cooling under clear or partly cloudy skies, with differences in boundary-layer wind and moisture profiles able to shift the overnight low by several degrees. Late-September climatology features increasing potential for polar air intrusions across central Europe, yet model consensus remains split on whether a stronger high-pressure ridge or lingering Atlantic moisture will dominate. New 00Z and 12Z runs from ECMWF and ICON, plus updated observational data from surface stations, will refine the temperature trajectory ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions