Latest DWD and ECMWF ensemble guidance positions Munich’s August 15 maximum near 33–35 °C under a persistent high-pressure ridge and southwesterly warm-air advection. Mostly clear skies and light boundary-layer winds support strong daytime heating, while modest model spread around 32–36 °C reflects small differences in moisture and timing of any late-day cloud build-up. This exceeds the station’s late-August climatological mean of ~24–26 °C, consistent with the broader 2026 European heatwave that has produced repeated positive temperature anomalies across central Europe. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 35 °C, with 34 °C the next most likely outcome, pending the next official forecast updates and any rapid changes in the ridge’s position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on August 15?
Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?
35°C 50%
34°C 26%
36°C 17%
33°C 6%
NEW
$12,382 Vol.
NEW
$12,382 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
6%
34°C
26%
35°C
50%
36°C
17%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
<1%
35°C 50%
34°C 26%
36°C 17%
33°C 6%
NEW
$12,382 Vol.
NEW
$12,382 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$209 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$605 Vol.
1%
32°C
$772 Vol.
2%
33°C
$3,203 Vol.
6%
34°C
$2,444 Vol.
26%
35°C
$2,956 Vol.
50%
36°C
$1,001 Vol.
17%
37°C
$282 Vol.
2%
38°C
$404 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$350 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest DWD and ECMWF ensemble guidance positions Munich’s August 15 maximum near 33–35 °C under a persistent high-pressure ridge and southwesterly warm-air advection. Mostly clear skies and light boundary-layer winds support strong daytime heating, while modest model spread around 32–36 °C reflects small differences in moisture and timing of any late-day cloud build-up. This exceeds the station’s late-August climatological mean of ~24–26 °C, consistent with the broader 2026 European heatwave that has produced repeated positive temperature anomalies across central Europe. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 35 °C, with 34 °C the next most likely outcome, pending the next official forecast updates and any rapid changes in the ridge’s position.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,382End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest DWD and ECMWF ensemble guidance positions Munich’s August 15 maximum near 33–35 °C under a persistent high-pressure ridge and southwesterly warm-air advection. Mostly clear skies and light boundary-layer winds support strong daytime heating, while modest model spread around 32–36 °C reflects small differences in moisture and timing of any late-day cloud build-up. This exceeds the station’s late-August climatological mean of ~24–26 °C, consistent with the broader 2026 European heatwave that has produced repeated positive temperature anomalies across central Europe. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 35 °C, with 34 °C the next most likely outcome, pending the next official forecast updates and any rapid changes in the ridge’s position.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,382End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest DWD and ECMWF ensemble guidance positions Munich’s August 15 maximum near 33–35 °C under a persistent high-pressure ridge and southwesterly warm-air advection. Mostly clear skies and light boundary-layer winds support strong daytime heating, while modest model spread around 32–36 °C reflects small differences in moisture and timing of any late-day cloud build-up. This exceeds the station’s late-August climatological mean of ~24–26 °C, consistent with the broader 2026 European heatwave that has produced repeated positive temperature anomalies across central Europe. Traders therefore assign the highest implied probability to 35 °C, with 34 °C the next most likely outcome, pending the next official forecast updates and any rapid changes in the ridge’s position.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions