Recent model consensus from ECMWF and national services shows Milan under a persistent subtropical high with warm-air advection and clear skies, favoring afternoon maxima of 35–36 °C on 15 August amid the broader 2026 European heatwave. Official guidance from Italian meteorological sources and BBC forecasts cite 35 °C with light southerly winds and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects could push station readings slightly higher. Trader consensus clustering at 34–35 °C reflects uncertainty in the precise peak timing, potential late-day stabilization, and minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Latest runs indicate little change expected before resolution, keeping probabilities anchored near these levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Milan on August 15?
Highest temperature in Milan on August 15?
34°C 47%
35°C 35%
33°C 11%
36°C 8%
NEW
$12,079 Vol.
NEW
$12,079 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
11%
34°C
47%
35°C
35%
36°C
8%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 47%
35°C 35%
33°C 11%
36°C 8%
NEW
$12,079 Vol.
NEW
$12,079 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
30°C or below
$215 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$332 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$904 Vol.
1%
33°C
$2,136 Vol.
11%
34°C
$1,471 Vol.
47%
35°C
$2,369 Vol.
35%
36°C
$2,201 Vol.
8%
37°C
$928 Vol.
1%
38°C
$802 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$578 Vol.
<1%
40°C or higher
$143 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and national services shows Milan under a persistent subtropical high with warm-air advection and clear skies, favoring afternoon maxima of 35–36 °C on 15 August amid the broader 2026 European heatwave. Official guidance from Italian meteorological sources and BBC forecasts cite 35 °C with light southerly winds and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects could push station readings slightly higher. Trader consensus clustering at 34–35 °C reflects uncertainty in the precise peak timing, potential late-day stabilization, and minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Latest runs indicate little change expected before resolution, keeping probabilities anchored near these levels.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$12,079End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ECMWF and national services shows Milan under a persistent subtropical high with warm-air advection and clear skies, favoring afternoon maxima of 35–36 °C on 15 August amid the broader 2026 European heatwave. Official guidance from Italian meteorological sources and BBC forecasts cite 35 °C with light southerly winds and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects could push station readings slightly higher. Trader consensus clustering at 34–35 °C reflects uncertainty in the precise peak timing, potential late-day stabilization, and minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Latest runs indicate little change expected before resolution, keeping probabilities anchored near these levels.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Malpensa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,079End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/it/milan/LIMCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from ECMWF and national services shows Milan under a persistent subtropical high with warm-air advection and clear skies, favoring afternoon maxima of 35–36 °C on 15 August amid the broader 2026 European heatwave. Official guidance from Italian meteorological sources and BBC forecasts cite 35 °C with light southerly winds and minimal cloud cover, while urban heat-island effects could push station readings slightly higher. Trader consensus clustering at 34–35 °C reflects uncertainty in the precise peak timing, potential late-day stabilization, and minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Latest runs indicate little change expected before resolution, keeping probabilities anchored near these levels.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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