Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s August 14 maximum near 17–19 °C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover that restricts daytime heating, and surface high pressure limiting warm-air advection. Recent observations of cooler, unsettled air on August 13 reinforce expectations for only modest warming, keeping the distribution tightly clustered. Typical boundary-layer variability of 1–2 °C explains why 18 °C commands the highest market-implied probability while 17 °C and 19 °C retain meaningful shares. Updated model runs and Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance before the observation window remain the key near-term variables that could nudge probabilities within this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 14?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 14?
18°C 75%
17°C 18%
19°C 9%
16°C 4%
$21,641 Vol.
$21,641 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
4%
17°C
18%
18°C
75%
19°C
9%
20°C
2%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 75%
17°C 18%
19°C 9%
16°C 4%
$21,641 Vol.
$21,641 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
13°C or below
$2,457 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$2,605 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$1,939 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$2,111 Vol.
4%
17°C
$3,136 Vol.
18%
18°C
$3,412 Vol.
75%
19°C
$3,382 Vol.
9%
20°C
$858 Vol.
2%
21°C
$711 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$572 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$456 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s August 14 maximum near 17–19 °C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover that restricts daytime heating, and surface high pressure limiting warm-air advection. Recent observations of cooler, unsettled air on August 13 reinforce expectations for only modest warming, keeping the distribution tightly clustered. Typical boundary-layer variability of 1–2 °C explains why 18 °C commands the highest market-implied probability while 17 °C and 19 °C retain meaningful shares. Updated model runs and Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance before the observation window remain the key near-term variables that could nudge probabilities within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$21,641End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s August 14 maximum near 17–19 °C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover that restricts daytime heating, and surface high pressure limiting warm-air advection. Recent observations of cooler, unsettled air on August 13 reinforce expectations for only modest warming, keeping the distribution tightly clustered. Typical boundary-layer variability of 1–2 °C explains why 18 °C commands the highest market-implied probability while 17 °C and 19 °C retain meaningful shares. Updated model runs and Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance before the observation window remain the key near-term variables that could nudge probabilities within this narrow band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$21,641End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS place Moscow’s August 14 maximum near 17–19 °C under moderate westerly flow, partial cloud cover that restricts daytime heating, and surface high pressure limiting warm-air advection. Recent observations of cooler, unsettled air on August 13 reinforce expectations for only modest warming, keeping the distribution tightly clustered. Typical boundary-layer variability of 1–2 °C explains why 18 °C commands the highest market-implied probability while 17 °C and 19 °C retain meaningful shares. Updated model runs and Russian Hydrometeorological Centre guidance before the observation window remain the key near-term variables that could nudge probabilities within this narrow band.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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