Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Moscow maximum near 20°C on August 15, driving the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C outcomes amid 73.5% combined implied probability. Persistent northerly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating below the 22°C climatological average, while model spread creates modest uncertainty between 18°C and 21°C depending on the exact timing of any afternoon clearing. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns support this cooler regime, with traders weighing final model runs and surface observations expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 15?
20°C 40%
19°C 34%
18°C 13%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
2%
18°C
13%
19°C
34%
20°C
40%
21°C
10%
22°C
4%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 40%
19°C 34%
18°C 13%
21°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
15°C or below
$471 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$147 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$841 Vol.
2%
18°C
$748 Vol.
13%
19°C
$1,013 Vol.
34%
20°C
$1,996 Vol.
40%
21°C
$460 Vol.
10%
22°C
$295 Vol.
4%
23°C
$162 Vol.
1%
24°C
$318 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$276 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Moscow maximum near 20°C on August 15, driving the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C outcomes amid 73.5% combined implied probability. Persistent northerly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating below the 22°C climatological average, while model spread creates modest uncertainty between 18°C and 21°C depending on the exact timing of any afternoon clearing. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns support this cooler regime, with traders weighing final model runs and surface observations expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$6,727End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Moscow maximum near 20°C on August 15, driving the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C outcomes amid 73.5% combined implied probability. Persistent northerly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating below the 22°C climatological average, while model spread creates modest uncertainty between 18°C and 21°C depending on the exact timing of any afternoon clearing. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns support this cooler regime, with traders weighing final model runs and surface observations expected before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,727End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models point to a Moscow maximum near 20°C on August 15, driving the market's tight clustering around 19–20°C outcomes amid 73.5% combined implied probability. Persistent northerly flow and increased cloud cover are suppressing daytime heating below the 22°C climatological average, while model spread creates modest uncertainty between 18°C and 21°C depending on the exact timing of any afternoon clearing. Historical analogs from similar late-summer patterns support this cooler regime, with traders weighing final model runs and surface observations expected before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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