Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon has produced widespread cloud cover and frequent rainfall across Metro Manila, suppressing daytime solar heating and anchoring official PAGASA forecasts for an August 15 maximum near 30–33°C. Ensemble models show modest spread within this range, consistent with historical August averages of 31°C under similar monsoon conditions. Market-implied odds cluster on 31°C (41%) and 32°C (26.5%), reflecting trader assessment of these atmospheric constraints and limited potential for brief clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. Heavy rain probability further reduces odds for outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 15?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 15?
31°C 41%
32°C 27%
30°C 20%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
2%
29°C
7%
30°C
20%
31°C
41%
32°C
27%
33°C
5%
34°C
1%
35°C or higher
<1%
31°C 41%
32°C 27%
30°C 20%
29°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
25°C or below
$487 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$332 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,265 Vol.
2%
29°C
$815 Vol.
7%
30°C
$974 Vol.
20%
31°C
$1,270 Vol.
41%
32°C
$1,806 Vol.
27%
33°C
$682 Vol.
5%
34°C
$285 Vol.
1%
35°C or higher
$246 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon has produced widespread cloud cover and frequent rainfall across Metro Manila, suppressing daytime solar heating and anchoring official PAGASA forecasts for an August 15 maximum near 30–33°C. Ensemble models show modest spread within this range, consistent with historical August averages of 31°C under similar monsoon conditions. Market-implied odds cluster on 31°C (41%) and 32°C (26.5%), reflecting trader assessment of these atmospheric constraints and limited potential for brief clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. Heavy rain probability further reduces odds for outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$8,422End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon has produced widespread cloud cover and frequent rainfall across Metro Manila, suppressing daytime solar heating and anchoring official PAGASA forecasts for an August 15 maximum near 30–33°C. Ensemble models show modest spread within this range, consistent with historical August averages of 31°C under similar monsoon conditions. Market-implied odds cluster on 31°C (41%) and 32°C (26.5%), reflecting trader assessment of these atmospheric constraints and limited potential for brief clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. Heavy rain probability further reduces odds for outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,422End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity over Luzon has produced widespread cloud cover and frequent rainfall across Metro Manila, suppressing daytime solar heating and anchoring official PAGASA forecasts for an August 15 maximum near 30–33°C. Ensemble models show modest spread within this range, consistent with historical August averages of 31°C under similar monsoon conditions. Market-implied odds cluster on 31°C (41%) and 32°C (26.5%), reflecting trader assessment of these atmospheric constraints and limited potential for brief clearing that could allow brief spikes toward 33°C. Heavy rain probability further reduces odds for outcomes above 33°C or below 30°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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