Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service converge on a maximum of 25–28 °C for Istanbul on August 15, 2026, with the highest probability centered near 26–27 °C. This consensus aligns closely with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs, moderated by the city’s maritime setting along the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where sea breezes and humidity typically cap extreme warming. Current surface conditions—scattered clouds, moderate northerly winds, and no approaching fronts—support stable temperatures without significant deviation. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 25–27 °C band while discounting outliers above 28 °C or below 25 °C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24-hour forecasts for this region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 15?
26°C 64%
27°C 19%
25°C 17%
24°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
2%
25°C
17%
26°C
64%
27°C
19%
28°C
1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 64%
27°C 19%
25°C 17%
24°C 2%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$432 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$579 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$655 Vol.
2%
25°C
$1,732 Vol.
17%
26°C
$2,867 Vol.
64%
27°C
$1,158 Vol.
19%
28°C
$752 Vol.
1%
29°C
$548 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$311 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$342 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$372 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service converge on a maximum of 25–28 °C for Istanbul on August 15, 2026, with the highest probability centered near 26–27 °C. This consensus aligns closely with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs, moderated by the city’s maritime setting along the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where sea breezes and humidity typically cap extreme warming. Current surface conditions—scattered clouds, moderate northerly winds, and no approaching fronts—support stable temperatures without significant deviation. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 25–27 °C band while discounting outliers above 28 °C or below 25 °C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24-hour forecasts for this region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,748End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service converge on a maximum of 25–28 °C for Istanbul on August 15, 2026, with the highest probability centered near 26–27 °C. This consensus aligns closely with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs, moderated by the city’s maritime setting along the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where sea breezes and humidity typically cap extreme warming. Current surface conditions—scattered clouds, moderate northerly winds, and no approaching fronts—support stable temperatures without significant deviation. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 25–27 °C band while discounting outliers above 28 °C or below 25 °C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24-hour forecasts for this region.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,748End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and Turkish State Meteorological Service converge on a maximum of 25–28 °C for Istanbul on August 15, 2026, with the highest probability centered near 26–27 °C. This consensus aligns closely with mid-August climatology of 27–29 °C highs, moderated by the city’s maritime setting along the Bosphorus and Sea of Marmara, where sea breezes and humidity typically cap extreme warming. Current surface conditions—scattered clouds, moderate northerly winds, and no approaching fronts—support stable temperatures without significant deviation. Traders have therefore assigned the bulk of probability mass to the narrow 25–27 °C band while discounting outliers above 28 °C or below 25 °C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range typical of 24-hour forecasts for this region.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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