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icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

icon for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Aug 14

Aug 15

Aug 16

Aug 14

Aug 15

Aug 16

33°C 38%

32°C 34%

31°C 16%

34°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

33°C 38%

32°C 34%

31°C 16%

34°C 12%

Polymarket
NEW

27°C or below

$868 Vol.

<1%

28°C

$110 Vol.

<1%

29°C

$130 Vol.

<1%

30°C

$133 Vol.

3%

31°C

$345 Vol.

16%

32°C

$176 Vol.

34%

33°C

$696 Vol.

38%

34°C

$369 Vol.

12%

35°C

$72 Vol.

3%

36°C

$302 Vol.

2%

37°C or higher

$119 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August 16 peak temperature centers on short-range forecast guidance projecting a maximum near 32–33°C amid typical mid-August conditions of high humidity and southwest monsoon flow. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures overall, yet daily model runs show potential moderation from scattered showers and cloud cover that limit radiative heating. Historical analogs and the recent resolution of a comparable August market at 33°C reinforce the narrow spread between leading outcomes, with differentiation hinging on precise timing of rainfall, wind shifts, and boundary-layer moisture. Updated numerical weather predictions and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,321
End Date
Aug 16, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment for Hong Kong's August 16 peak temperature centers on short-range forecast guidance projecting a maximum near 32–33°C amid typical mid-August conditions of high humidity and southwest monsoon flow. Hong Kong Observatory seasonal outlooks indicate normal to above-normal temperatures overall, yet daily model runs show potential moderation from scattered showers and cloud cover that limit radiative heating. Historical analogs and the recent resolution of a comparable August market at 33°C reinforce the narrow spread between leading outcomes, with differentiation hinging on precise timing of rainfall, wind shifts, and boundary-layer moisture. Updated numerical weather predictions and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm

This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$3,321
End Date
Aug 16, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "33°C" at 38%, followed by "32°C" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?" is "33°C" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "32°C" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.