Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 23 under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and only low precipitation chances. This positions 21°C as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability, followed closely by 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 18°C. Minor model spread around steering patterns and cloud cover introduces limited upside or downside risk, keeping lower outcomes like 19°C at just 11.5% while higher thresholds remain negligible. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
20°C 53%
21°C 38%
19°C 9%
22°C 3%
NEW
$13,499 Vol.
NEW
$13,499 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
9%
20°C
53%
21°C
38%
22°C
3%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
20°C 53%
21°C 38%
19°C 9%
22°C 3%
NEW
$13,499 Vol.
NEW
$13,499 Vol.
Sep 23, 2026
14°C or below
$622 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$62 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$102 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$456 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$997 Vol.
2%
19°C
$1,945 Vol.
9%
20°C
$4,087 Vol.
53%
21°C
$3,119 Vol.
38%
22°C
$1,353 Vol.
3%
23°C
$213 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$542 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 23 under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and only low precipitation chances. This positions 21°C as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability, followed closely by 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 18°C. Minor model spread around steering patterns and cloud cover introduces limited upside or downside risk, keeping lower outcomes like 19°C at just 11.5% while higher thresholds remain negligible. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$13,499End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 23 under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and only low precipitation chances. This positions 21°C as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability, followed closely by 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 18°C. Minor model spread around steering patterns and cloud cover introduces limited upside or downside risk, keeping lower outcomes like 19°C at just 11.5% while higher thresholds remain negligible. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,499End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent numerical weather prediction models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, indicate a maximum temperature of 20–21°C in Amsterdam on September 23 under mostly cloudy skies with light southwesterly winds and only low precipitation chances. This positions 21°C as the market leader at 52.5% implied probability, followed closely by 20°C, consistent with ensemble guidance showing afternoon peaks near or slightly above the September climatological average of roughly 18°C. Minor model spread around steering patterns and cloud cover introduces limited upside or downside risk, keeping lower outcomes like 19°C at just 11.5% while higher thresholds remain negligible. Updated model cycles expected overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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