Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, point to a daily minimum of 11–14°C in Amsterdam on September 23, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup aligns closely with the September climatological average low near 10°C but with reduced spread from recent high-pressure influence. Model differences in exact timing of northwest wind shifts and precipitation rates create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–15°C outcomes, while the elevated 30% on 17°C or higher reflects lingering uncertainty over any late-day warming or measurement site specifics. Official KNMI station data will resolve the precise minimum within defined thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Amsterdam on September 23?
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
10°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
7°C or below
9%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
30%
11°C
40%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
22%
15°C
21%
16°C
18%
17°C or higher
<1%
11°C 40%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
10°C 30%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
7°C or below
$100 Vol.
9%
8°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$40 Vol.
1%
10°C
$8 Vol.
30%
11°C
$8 Vol.
40%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
22%
15°C
$0 Vol.
21%
16°C
$50 Vol.
18%
17°C or higher
$120 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, point to a daily minimum of 11–14°C in Amsterdam on September 23, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup aligns closely with the September climatological average low near 10°C but with reduced spread from recent high-pressure influence. Model differences in exact timing of northwest wind shifts and precipitation rates create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–15°C outcomes, while the elevated 30% on 17°C or higher reflects lingering uncertainty over any late-day warming or measurement site specifics. Official KNMI station data will resolve the precise minimum within defined thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$392End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, point to a daily minimum of 11–14°C in Amsterdam on September 23, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup aligns closely with the September climatological average low near 10°C but with reduced spread from recent high-pressure influence. Model differences in exact timing of northwest wind shifts and precipitation rates create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–15°C outcomes, while the elevated 30% on 17°C or higher reflects lingering uncertainty over any late-day warming or measurement site specifics. Official KNMI station data will resolve the precise minimum within defined thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$392End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models, including GFS and ECMWF runs, point to a daily minimum of 11–14°C in Amsterdam on September 23, driven by a mild southwesterly flow, increasing cloud cover, and light showers that limit nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup aligns closely with the September climatological average low near 10°C but with reduced spread from recent high-pressure influence. Model differences in exact timing of northwest wind shifts and precipitation rates create the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 11–15°C outcomes, while the elevated 30% on 17°C or higher reflects lingering uncertainty over any late-day warming or measurement site specifics. Official KNMI station data will resolve the precise minimum within defined thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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