Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high near 17–18°C for Amsterdam on September 24, driven by northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 18°C at 57.5%, followed by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-term guidance two days out. Recent observations show a cooling trend from mid-September highs near 21°C, consistent with seasonal norms for late September when average maxima hover around 17–18°C. Traders appear to weight the consensus across official monitoring and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk from clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine exact maxima and any boundary-layer effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Amsterdam on September 24?
Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 24?
18°C 55%
19°C 26%
17°C 15%
20°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
12°C or below
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
4%
17°C
15%
18°C
55%
19°C
26%
20°C
5%
21°C
2%
22°C or higher
2%
18°C 55%
19°C 26%
17°C 15%
20°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
12°C or below
$101 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$1 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$14 Vol.
1%
15°C
$40 Vol.
2%
16°C
$47 Vol.
4%
17°C
$392 Vol.
15%
18°C
$861 Vol.
55%
19°C
$80 Vol.
26%
20°C
$141 Vol.
5%
21°C
$60 Vol.
2%
22°C or higher
$50 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high near 17–18°C for Amsterdam on September 24, driven by northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 18°C at 57.5%, followed by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-term guidance two days out. Recent observations show a cooling trend from mid-September highs near 21°C, consistent with seasonal norms for late September when average maxima hover around 17–18°C. Traders appear to weight the consensus across official monitoring and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk from clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine exact maxima and any boundary-layer effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$1,787End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high near 17–18°C for Amsterdam on September 24, driven by northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 18°C at 57.5%, followed by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-term guidance two days out. Recent observations show a cooling trend from mid-September highs near 21°C, consistent with seasonal norms for late September when average maxima hover around 17–18°C. Traders appear to weight the consensus across official monitoring and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk from clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine exact maxima and any boundary-layer effects.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,787End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ehamResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including ECMWF and GFS indicate a high near 17–18°C for Amsterdam on September 24, driven by northwest winds advecting cooler maritime air and persistent cloud cover that limits solar heating. This aligns with the market-implied probabilities favoring 18°C at 57.5%, followed by 19°C and 17°C, reflecting the narrow uncertainty range in short-term guidance two days out. Recent observations show a cooling trend from mid-September highs near 21°C, consistent with seasonal norms for late September when average maxima hover around 17–18°C. Traders appear to weight the consensus across official monitoring and ensemble runs, with limited upside risk from clearer skies or southerly flow shifts. Updated model runs closer to the date will refine exact maxima and any boundary-layer effects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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