The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak that began in DRC’s Ituri Province in May 2026, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases and declared a public health emergency, drives trader sentiment on country-specific resolutions. Spillover has already produced cases in Uganda (20 confirmed, outbreak declared over in late July) and one imported case in France, pushing those markets to near-certainty while elevating probabilities for neighbors like South Sudan and Kenya amid porous borders and population movement. With no approved vaccine for this strain and response hampered by insecurity plus health-system gaps, momentum hinges on the August 18 IHR Emergency Committee update and any new cross-border detections before year-end. Traders weigh sustained DRC transmission against containment successes seen in prior outbreaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
$32,579 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
South Sudan
63%
Rwanda
30%
Burundi
32%
United States
20%
Canada
29%
Kenya
54%
India
12%
Republic of the Congo
30%
Nigeria
51%
Ethiopia
50%
Somalia
34%
China
21%
$32,579 Vol.
South Sudan
$1,794 Vol.
63%
Rwanda
$2,128 Vol.
30%
Burundi
$200 Vol.
32%
United States
$9,621 Vol.
20%
Canada
$1,086 Vol.
29%
Kenya
$195 Vol.
54%
India
$732 Vol.
12%
Republic of the Congo
$11,921 Vol.
30%
Nigeria
$25 Vol.
51%
Ethiopia
$65 Vol.
50%
Somalia
$71 Vol.
34%
China
$2,787 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak that began in DRC’s Ituri Province in May 2026, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases and declared a public health emergency, drives trader sentiment on country-specific resolutions. Spillover has already produced cases in Uganda (20 confirmed, outbreak declared over in late July) and one imported case in France, pushing those markets to near-certainty while elevating probabilities for neighbors like South Sudan and Kenya amid porous borders and population movement. With no approved vaccine for this strain and response hampered by insecurity plus health-system gaps, momentum hinges on the August 18 IHR Emergency Committee update and any new cross-border detections before year-end. Traders weigh sustained DRC transmission against containment successes seen in prior outbreaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ET
Volume
$32,579End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak that began in DRC’s Ituri Province in May 2026, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases and declared a public health emergency, drives trader sentiment on country-specific resolutions. Spillover has already produced cases in Uganda (20 confirmed, outbreak declared over in late July) and one imported case in France, pushing those markets to near-certainty while elevating probabilities for neighbors like South Sudan and Kenya amid porous borders and population movement. With no approved vaccine for this strain and response hampered by insecurity plus health-system gaps, momentum hinges on the August 18 IHR Emergency Committee update and any new cross-border detections before year-end. Traders weigh sustained DRC transmission against containment successes seen in prior outbreaks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Ebola in the territory of the specified country reported between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Any active laboratory-confirmed, or otherwise officially confirmed, Ebola infection identified within the territory of the specified country will qualify, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or testing occurred.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$32,579End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 22, 2026, 12:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak that began in DRC’s Ituri Province in May 2026, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases and declared a public health emergency, drives trader sentiment on country-specific resolutions. Spillover has already produced cases in Uganda (20 confirmed, outbreak declared over in late July) and one imported case in France, pushing those markets to near-certainty while elevating probabilities for neighbors like South Sudan and Kenya amid porous borders and population movement. With no approved vaccine for this strain and response hampered by insecurity plus health-system gaps, momentum hinges on the August 18 IHR Emergency Committee update and any new cross-border detections before year-end. Traders weigh sustained DRC transmission against containment successes seen in prior outbreaks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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