Ongoing containment efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the recent end of Uganda's Bundibugyo virus outbreak have kept the virus from reaching new nations, supporting the market's slight lean toward "No." The DRC epidemic, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases across multiple provinces, remains largely confined to affected areas despite rising numbers, with robust international response including treatment centers and contact tracing limiting cross-border movement. No verified cases have surfaced in additional countries since May, and the roughly seven weeks until October 1 provide time for further stabilization. Traders appear to weigh the remote epicenters, historical containment patterns for this strain, and absence of fresh spillovers against the outbreak's scale and mobility risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola: new country confirmed before October 1?
Ebola: new country confirmed before October 1?
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
45% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 1, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing containment efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the recent end of Uganda's Bundibugyo virus outbreak have kept the virus from reaching new nations, supporting the market's slight lean toward "No." The DRC epidemic, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases across multiple provinces, remains largely confined to affected areas despite rising numbers, with robust international response including treatment centers and contact tracing limiting cross-border movement. No verified cases have surfaced in additional countries since May, and the roughly seven weeks until October 1 provide time for further stabilization. Traders appear to weigh the remote epicenters, historical containment patterns for this strain, and absence of fresh spillovers against the outbreak's scale and mobility risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Ongoing containment efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the recent end of Uganda's Bundibugyo virus outbreak have kept the virus from reaching new nations, supporting the market's slight lean toward "No." The DRC epidemic, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases across multiple provinces, remains largely confined to affected areas despite rising numbers, with robust international response including treatment centers and contact tracing limiting cross-border movement. No verified cases have surfaced in additional countries since May, and the roughly seven weeks until October 1 provide time for further stabilization. Traders appear to weigh the remote epicenters, historical containment patterns for this strain, and absence of fresh spillovers against the outbreak's scale and mobility risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET., a confirmed case of Ebola is reported in a country that had not reported any confirmed Ebola case in the current outbreak as of market creation. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The "current outbreak" is the Bundibugyo ebolavirus outbreak declared by the DRC on May 15, 2026. A "qualifying country" is any country other than the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, or France, each of which had recorded at least one confirmed case attributable to this outbreak as reported by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) https://www.cdc.gov/ebola/situation-summary/index.html.
A "confirmed case" is a laboratory-confirmed Bundibugyo ebolavirus infection attributed to the current outbreak. A case counts for whichever country the qualifying source assigns it to in its reporting, regardless of where exposure, symptom onset, or specimen collection occurred. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation — not the date of exposure, onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant national and international health authorities, including CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$20End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 2:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing containment efforts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the recent end of Uganda's Bundibugyo virus outbreak have kept the virus from reaching new nations, supporting the market's slight lean toward "No." The DRC epidemic, now exceeding 4,500 confirmed cases across multiple provinces, remains largely confined to affected areas despite rising numbers, with robust international response including treatment centers and contact tracing limiting cross-border movement. No verified cases have surfaced in additional countries since May, and the roughly seven weeks until October 1 provide time for further stabilization. Traders appear to weigh the remote epicenters, historical containment patterns for this strain, and absence of fresh spillovers against the outbreak's scale and mobility risks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions