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Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

icon for What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?
Climate & Science·Weather

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

Dolly 44%

Edouard 24%

Fay 14%

Isaias 6.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Dolly 44%

Edouard 24%

Fay 14%

Isaias 6.3%

Polymarket
NEW

Cristobal

$1,657 Vol.

3%

Dolly

$287 Vol.

44%

Edouard

$903 Vol.

18%

Fay

$453 Vol.

14%

Gonzalo

$472 Vol.

5%

Hanna

$98 Vol.

5%

Isaias

$350 Vol.

6%

Josephine

$55 Vol.

5%

Kyle

$94 Vol.

3%

Leah

$59 Vol.

3%

Marco

$111 Vol.

5%

Nana

$51 Vol.

5%

Omar

$67 Vol.

5%

Paulette

$71 Vol.

5%

Rene

$63 Vol.

5%

Sally

$131 Vol.

3%

Teddy

$63 Vol.

5%

Vicky

$90 Vol.

4%

Wilfred

$118 Vol.

4%

Other

$63 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Dolly leads the market at 44% implied probability as the next name on the 2026 Atlantic list after three early tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) all remained below hurricane strength.** With no hurricanes recorded through mid-August and the National Hurricane Center confirming only tropical-storm-force systems so far, the first system to reach sustained winds of 74 mph or greater will carry the next available name. NOAA’s August outlook continues to call for a below-normal season overall (2–6 hurricanes expected), which keeps near-term formation odds concentrated on Dolly or the immediately following names. Edouard (19%) and Fay (14%) sit next because any delay in Dolly’s development or failure to intensify would shift the first hurricane designation forward in the alphabetical sequence. Historical climatology shows that the period from mid-August onward typically sees the first Atlantic hurricane, and current sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns favor gradual organization of the next disturbance. Traders are pricing in the low early-season activity and the sequential nature of the name list, with smaller probabilities assigned to later names reflecting the chance of multiple weak systems before the season’s first hurricane forms.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,257
End Date
Dec 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. **Dolly leads the market at 44% implied probability as the next name on the 2026 Atlantic list after three early tropical storms (Arthur, Bertha, and Cristobal) all remained below hurricane strength.** With no hurricanes recorded through mid-August and the National Hurricane Center confirming only tropical-storm-force systems so far, the first system to reach sustained winds of 74 mph or greater will carry the next available name. NOAA’s August outlook continues to call for a below-normal season overall (2–6 hurricanes expected), which keeps near-term formation odds concentrated on Dolly or the immediately following names. Edouard (19%) and Fay (14%) sit next because any delay in Dolly’s development or failure to intensify would shift the first hurricane designation forward in the alphabetical sequence. Historical climatology shows that the period from mid-August onward typically sees the first Atlantic hurricane, and current sea-surface temperatures and steering patterns favor gradual organization of the next disturbance. Traders are pricing in the low early-season activity and the sequential nature of the name list, with smaller probabilities assigned to later names reflecting the chance of multiple weak systems before the season’s first hurricane forms.

This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other".

A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named.

All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml).

This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.
Volume
$5,257
End Date
Dec 2, 2026
Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 12:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the name of the first named storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic from the creation of this market through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation through November 30, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET, then this market resolves to "Other". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. A tropical storm will not qualify as a hurricane even if it is named. All names are from the NHC list of 2026 Atlantic Names (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnames.shtml). This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Dolly" at 44%, followed by "Edouard" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" is "Dolly" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Edouard" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.