**Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements in The Jerusalem Post form the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating his party can succeed independently and does not view Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has echoed this stance, declaring the parties will run separately. Earlier June 2026 reporting indicated Netanyahu had explored incentives for a merger to protect the right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined, citing differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir believing his party can clear the threshold alone. Polling has shown Smotrich’s support base more vulnerable without an alliance, but recent public rejections have outweighed those concerns in the market. Traders therefore assign an 81.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds’ assessment that the explicit positions of the two party heads make a joint list unlikely absent a major intervening development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated11% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements in The Jerusalem Post form the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating his party can succeed independently and does not view Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has echoed this stance, declaring the parties will run separately.
Earlier June 2026 reporting indicated Netanyahu had explored incentives for a merger to protect the right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined, citing differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir believing his party can clear the threshold alone. Polling has shown Smotrich’s support base more vulnerable without an alliance, but recent public rejections have outweighed those concerns in the market. Traders therefore assign an 81.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds’ assessment that the explicit positions of the two party heads make a joint list unlikely absent a major intervening development.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ET
Volume
$755End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).**Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements in The Jerusalem Post form the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating his party can succeed independently and does not view Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has echoed this stance, declaring the parties will run separately.
Earlier June 2026 reporting indicated Netanyahu had explored incentives for a merger to protect the right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined, citing differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir believing his party can clear the threshold alone. Polling has shown Smotrich’s support base more vulnerable without an alliance, but recent public rejections have outweighed those concerns in the market. Traders therefore assign an 81.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds’ assessment that the explicit positions of the two party heads make a joint list unlikely absent a major intervening development.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$755End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Smotrich’s August 13, 2026, statements in The Jerusalem Post form the dominant driver of current trader positioning.** The Religious Zionist Party leader explicitly ruled out a renewed joint list with Otzma Yehudit’s Itamar Ben-Gvir for the October 2026 Knesset election, stating his party can succeed independently and does not view Ben-Gvir as a necessary partner. Ben-Gvir has echoed this stance, declaring the parties will run separately. Earlier June 2026 reporting indicated Netanyahu had explored incentives for a merger to protect the right-wing bloc, yet both leaders declined, citing differing ambitions—Smotrich seeking to avoid a subordinate role and Ben-Gvir believing his party can clear the threshold alone. Polling has shown Smotrich’s support base more vulnerable without an alliance, but recent public rejections have outweighed those concerns in the market. Traders therefore assign an 81.5% probability to “No,” reflecting the wisdom of crowds’ assessment that the explicit positions of the two party heads make a joint list unlikely absent a major intervening development.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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