Recent polling in the crowded Florida Republican primary for governor shows James Fishback holding roughly 12 percent support among likely voters, consistent with his lower name identification and more limited fundraising relative to frontrunner Byron Donalds. Multiple candidates, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner, have fragmented the field and sustained elevated undecided shares near 30 percent. Fishback’s backing appears concentrated among younger men, while a July ballot challenge was resolved in his favor, preserving access ahead of the August 18 primary. Traders assign the highest probability to a 10–15 percent finish, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of late momentum shifts that could alter his standing before votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedJames Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
James Fishback vote share in 2026 Florida Republican Governor Primary?
Fishback <10% 40%
Fishback 10–15% 38%
Fishback 15–20% 13%
Fishback 20–25% 7.9%
$51,506 Vol.
$51,506 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
40%
Fishback 10–15%
38%
Fishback 15–20%
13%
Fishback 20–25%
8%
Fishback 25–30%
3%
Fishback 30%+
4%
Fishback <10% 40%
Fishback 10–15% 38%
Fishback 15–20% 13%
Fishback 20–25% 7.9%
$51,506 Vol.
$51,506 Vol.
Aug 18, 2026
Fishback <10%
$39,147 Vol.
40%
Fishback 10–15%
$5,142 Vol.
38%
Fishback 15–20%
$2,184 Vol.
13%
Fishback 20–25%
$1,619 Vol.
8%
Fishback 25–30%
$1,018 Vol.
3%
Fishback 30%+
$2,396 Vol.
4%
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling in the crowded Florida Republican primary for governor shows James Fishback holding roughly 12 percent support among likely voters, consistent with his lower name identification and more limited fundraising relative to frontrunner Byron Donalds. Multiple candidates, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner, have fragmented the field and sustained elevated undecided shares near 30 percent. Fishback’s backing appears concentrated among younger men, while a July ballot challenge was resolved in his favor, preserving access ahead of the August 18 primary. Traders assign the highest probability to a 10–15 percent finish, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of late momentum shifts that could alter his standing before votes are cast.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volume
$51,506End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent polling in the crowded Florida Republican primary for governor shows James Fishback holding roughly 12 percent support among likely voters, consistent with his lower name identification and more limited fundraising relative to frontrunner Byron Donalds. Multiple candidates, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner, have fragmented the field and sustained elevated undecided shares near 30 percent. Fishback’s backing appears concentrated among younger men, while a July ballot challenge was resolved in his favor, preserving access ahead of the August 18 primary. Traders assign the highest probability to a 10–15 percent finish, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of late momentum shifts that could alter his standing before votes are cast.
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$51,506End Date
Aug 18, 2026Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling in the crowded Florida Republican primary for governor shows James Fishback holding roughly 12 percent support among likely voters, consistent with his lower name identification and more limited fundraising relative to frontrunner Byron Donalds. Multiple candidates, including Lt. Gov. Jay Collins and former House Speaker Paul Renner, have fragmented the field and sustained elevated undecided shares near 30 percent. Fishback’s backing appears concentrated among younger men, while a July ballot challenge was resolved in his favor, preserving access ahead of the August 18 primary. Traders assign the highest probability to a 10–15 percent finish, reflecting these fundamentals and the absence of late momentum shifts that could alter his standing before votes are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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