Sílvia Cristina holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s Senate race, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid and Mariana Carvalho, as recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Dr. Fernando Máximo leading overall while the remaining contenders remain closely bunched in the low-to-mid teens. The state’s strong right-leaning electorate and PL influence have consolidated support behind Máximo for one seat, leaving the second open amid overlapping voter preferences for multiple conservative candidates. High undecided rates above 20 percent, combined with the October 4 voting date and allowance for two distinct Senate votes per ballot, sustain volatility that prevents any single contender from pulling away decisively in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Rondônia Senate Election: 2nd Place
Sílvia Cristina 43%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 30%
Mariana Carvalho 13.2%
Dr. Fernando Máximo 7.6%
$22,899 Vol.
$22,899 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sílvia Cristina
43%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
30%
Mariana Carvalho
13%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
10%
Acir Gurgacz
5%
Luciana Oliveira
1%
Aires Mota
1%
Neidinha
1%
Engenheiro Thulio
<1%
Luis Fernando
<1%
Sílvia Cristina 43%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid 30%
Mariana Carvalho 13.2%
Dr. Fernando Máximo 7.6%
$22,899 Vol.
$22,899 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Sílvia Cristina
$13,195 Vol.
43%
Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid
$4,214 Vol.
30%
Mariana Carvalho
$726 Vol.
13%
Dr. Fernando Máximo
$1,148 Vol.
10%
Acir Gurgacz
$878 Vol.
5%
Luciana Oliveira
$364 Vol.
1%
Aires Mota
$628 Vol.
1%
Neidinha
$316 Vol.
1%
Engenheiro Thulio
$989 Vol.
<1%
Luis Fernando
$442 Vol.
<1%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sílvia Cristina holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s Senate race, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid and Mariana Carvalho, as recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Dr. Fernando Máximo leading overall while the remaining contenders remain closely bunched in the low-to-mid teens. The state’s strong right-leaning electorate and PL influence have consolidated support behind Máximo for one seat, leaving the second open amid overlapping voter preferences for multiple conservative candidates. High undecided rates above 20 percent, combined with the October 4 voting date and allowance for two distinct Senate votes per ballot, sustain volatility that prevents any single contender from pulling away decisively in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ET
Volume
$22,899End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Sílvia Cristina holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s Senate race, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid and Mariana Carvalho, as recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Dr. Fernando Máximo leading overall while the remaining contenders remain closely bunched in the low-to-mid teens. The state’s strong right-leaning electorate and PL influence have consolidated support behind Máximo for one seat, leaving the second open amid overlapping voter preferences for multiple conservative candidates. High undecided rates above 20 percent, combined with the October 4 voting date and allowance for two distinct Senate votes per ballot, sustain volatility that prevents any single contender from pulling away decisively in the final weeks.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rondônia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$22,899End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 6:14 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Sílvia Cristina holds the highest implied probability for second place in Rondônia’s Senate race, followed by Bruno Bolsonaro Scheid and Mariana Carvalho, as recent Quaest and Real Time Big Data surveys show Dr. Fernando Máximo leading overall while the remaining contenders remain closely bunched in the low-to-mid teens. The state’s strong right-leaning electorate and PL influence have consolidated support behind Máximo for one seat, leaving the second open amid overlapping voter preferences for multiple conservative candidates. High undecided rates above 20 percent, combined with the October 4 voting date and allowance for two distinct Senate votes per ballot, sustain volatility that prevents any single contender from pulling away decisively in the final weeks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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