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icon for Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner
World·Samoa

Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner

icon for Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner
World·Samoa

Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner

Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 44%

Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 32%

Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 23%

Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW

Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia 44%

Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo 32%

Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo 23%

Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni 4.5%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia

Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia

$0 Vol.

44%

icon for Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo

Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo

$0 Vol.

32%

icon for Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo

Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo

$21 Vol.

23%

icon for Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni

Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni

$18 Vol.

5%

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).The September 18 by-election for Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency follows the Electoral Court’s ruling, upheld on appeal, that voided the May 2026 result after convicting the prior winner and runner-up of corrupt practices. A large field of more than a dozen confirmed candidates—including independents such as Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia and Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni, HRPP nominee Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo, and others—has fragmented voter support across parties and local networks. This split keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds for most contenders, with no single candidate consolidating a decisive lead in the short campaign window. Local issues such as infrastructure and party-switching dynamics could still shift turnout and consolidate backing before polls close.

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Volume
$39
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).The September 18 by-election for Samoa’s Vaimauga 3 constituency follows the Electoral Court’s ruling, upheld on appeal, that voided the May 2026 result after convicting the prior winner and runner-up of corrupt practices. A large field of more than a dozen confirmed candidates—including independents such as Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia and Puaalatamai Tupuola Malaeulu Filemoni, HRPP nominee Vaiofuaiupolu Chris Faaofo, and others—has fragmented voter support across parties and local networks. This split keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered near even odds for most contenders, with no single candidate consolidating a decisive lead in the short campaign window. Local issues such as infrastructure and party-switching dynamics could still shift turnout and consolidate backing before polls close.

A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa.

If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).
Volume
$39
End Date
Sep 18, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:58 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Samoan constituency of Vaimauga 3 is scheduled to take place on September 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vaimauga 3 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Samoa. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Office of the Electoral Commission of Samoa (https://www.oec.gov.ws/; https://www.facebook.com/oecsamoa).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia" at 44%, followed by "Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo" at 32%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" is "Nonu Lemauga Laulu William Mauia" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sooialo Lemigaoitamalii Sooialo" at 32%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vaimauga 3 By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.