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icon for Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner

icon for Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner

Fatima Shaban 51%

Ahsanul Hafiz 46%

Noor Tarun 2.3%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$23,596 Vol.

Fatima Shaban 51%

Ahsanul Hafiz 46%

Noor Tarun 2.3%

Mark Bekkering <1%

Polymarket

$23,596 Vol.

icon for Fatima Shaban

Fatima Shaban

$9,740 Vol.

51%

icon for Ahsanul Hafiz

Ahsanul Hafiz

$11,061 Vol.

46%

icon for Noor Tarun

Noor Tarun

$1,609 Vol.

2%

icon for Mark Bekkering

Mark Bekkering

$611 Vol.

<1%

icon for Chris Rees

Chris Rees

$574 Vol.

<1%

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election on September 3, 2026, features a narrow contest between NDP nominee Fatima Shaban and Liberal nominee Ahsanul Hafiz, with Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun trailing sharply. Shaban, a longtime community organizer and repeat local candidate, benefits from the riding’s recent NDP tenure under Doly Begum and established grassroots networks in a diverse, urban GTA district. Hafiz, who secured the Liberal nomination after defeating higher-profile rivals, brings business prominence and appeals to voters seeking an alternative amid provincial government fatigue. Low PC support reflects limited recent competitiveness in the riding, while minor-party entries and typical by-election turnout patterns sustain uncertainty. Advance voting underway through August 28 offers the main near-term signal, with final results expected to hinge on voter mobilization among core partisan blocs rather than late shifts.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$23,596
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).The Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election on September 3, 2026, features a narrow contest between NDP nominee Fatima Shaban and Liberal nominee Ahsanul Hafiz, with Progressive Conservative Noor Tarun trailing sharply. Shaban, a longtime community organizer and repeat local candidate, benefits from the riding’s recent NDP tenure under Doly Begum and established grassroots networks in a diverse, urban GTA district. Hafiz, who secured the Liberal nomination after defeating higher-profile rivals, brings business prominence and appeals to voters seeking an alternative amid provincial government fatigue. Low PC support reflects limited recent competitiveness in the riding, while minor-party entries and typical by-election turnout patterns sustain uncertainty. Advance voting underway through August 28 offers the main near-term signal, with final results expected to hinge on voter mobilization among core partisan blocs rather than late shifts.

A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$23,596
End Date
Sep 3, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 5:46 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Scarborough Southwest is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Fatima Shaban" at 51%, followed by "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 46%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 51¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" has generated $23.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 20, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" is "Fatima Shaban" at 51%, meaning the market assigns a 51% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Ahsanul Hafiz" at 46%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Scarborough Southwest Provincial By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.