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icon for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
Politics·Canada

Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Guillaume Cliche-Rivard 39%

Benoit Clermont 39%

Anthony Lavoie 27%

Polymarket
NEW

Guillaume Cliche-Rivard 39%

Benoit Clermont 39%

Anthony Lavoie 27%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Guillaume Cliche-Rivard

Guillaume Cliche-Rivard

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Benoit Clermont

Benoit Clermont

$0 Vol.

39%

icon for Anthony Lavoie

Anthony Lavoie

$0 Vol.

27%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The race for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne remains a near toss-up between incumbent Québec solidaire MNA Guillaume Cliche-Rivard and Liberal challenger Benoit Clermont, with CAQ candidate Anthony Lavoie trailing, consistent with trader pricing near 39-47% for the top two and lower for others. Cliche-Rivard gained the seat in the 2023 by-election after decades of Liberal control in this urban Montreal riding, where left-leaning voters prioritize housing, immigration, and social services. Clermont, a local resident and former television producer with legal experience, brings fresh Liberal organization to challenge that incumbency. Recent 338Canada and Qc125 projections from early September treat the contest as closely balanced, reflecting limited separation after the August 27 writ and amid province-wide polling volatility with undecided voters near 42%. Upcoming factors that could shift odds include candidate visibility through the September 17 nomination deadline, ground operations in the short campaign to October 5, and any provincial momentum from debates or turnout among progressive and anglophone blocs.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The race for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne remains a near toss-up between incumbent Québec solidaire MNA Guillaume Cliche-Rivard and Liberal challenger Benoit Clermont, with CAQ candidate Anthony Lavoie trailing, consistent with trader pricing near 39-47% for the top two and lower for others. Cliche-Rivard gained the seat in the 2023 by-election after decades of Liberal control in this urban Montreal riding, where left-leaning voters prioritize housing, immigration, and social services. Clermont, a local resident and former television producer with legal experience, brings fresh Liberal organization to challenge that incumbency. Recent 338Canada and Qc125 projections from early September treat the contest as closely balanced, reflecting limited separation after the August 27 writ and amid province-wide polling volatility with undecided voters near 42%. Upcoming factors that could shift odds include candidate visibility through the September 17 nomination deadline, ground operations in the short campaign to October 5, and any provincial momentum from debates or turnout among progressive and anglophone blocs.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$0
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Guillaume Cliche-Rivard" at 40%, followed by "Benoit Clermont" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Guillaume Cliche-Rivard" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Benoit Clermont" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.