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icon for Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

icon for Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner
World·Canada

Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner

Françoise Faverjon-Fortin 39%

Patrick Paquet 38%

Charles Hudon 27%

Stéphanie Martin 0

Polymarket
NEW

Françoise Faverjon-Fortin 39%

Patrick Paquet 38%

Charles Hudon 27%

Stéphanie Martin 0

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Françoise Faverjon-Fortin

Françoise Faverjon-Fortin

$20 Vol.

39%

icon for Patrick Paquet

Patrick Paquet

$20 Vol.

38%

icon for Charles Hudon

Charles Hudon

$41 Vol.

27%

icon for Stéphanie Martin

Stéphanie Martin

$20 Vol.

36%

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The open seat in Vanier-Les Rivières, following the retirement of long-serving CAQ MNA Mario Asselin, has produced a closely contested multi-party race ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election. Recent candidate announcements have highlighted local profiles—Stéphanie Martin (PQ) drawing on municipal journalism experience, Patrick Paquet (PCQ) leveraging prior city council tenure, Françoise Faverjon-Fortin (CAQ) with business and governance background, and Charles Hudon (PLQ) as a former Sûreté du Québec official—while projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the top three parties within a few points of one another in the mid-20s. This reflects broader Capitale-Nationale trends favoring PCQ advances alongside PQ resurgence and residual CAQ support, with no candidate yet establishing a clear edge. Developments such as the September 17 nomination deadline, advance polling, and targeted local campaigning on fiscal and regional priorities could widen margins before final results determine the winner.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$101
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).The open seat in Vanier-Les Rivières, following the retirement of long-serving CAQ MNA Mario Asselin, has produced a closely contested multi-party race ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election. Recent candidate announcements have highlighted local profiles—Stéphanie Martin (PQ) drawing on municipal journalism experience, Patrick Paquet (PCQ) leveraging prior city council tenure, Françoise Faverjon-Fortin (CAQ) with business and governance background, and Charles Hudon (PLQ) as a former Sûreté du Québec official—while projections from aggregators such as 338Canada and Qc125 place the top three parties within a few points of one another in the mid-20s. This reflects broader Capitale-Nationale trends favoring PCQ advances alongside PQ resurgence and residual CAQ support, with no candidate yet establishing a clear edge. Developments such as the September 17 nomination deadline, advance polling, and targeted local campaigning on fiscal and regional priorities could widen margins before final results determine the winner.

Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter.

If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).
Volume
$101
End Date
Oct 5, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 31, 2026, 3:52 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the next Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly election for a full term beginning in October 2026 or thereafter. If the election results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Quebec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca/).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Françoise Faverjon-Fortin" at 40%, followed by "Patrick Paquet" at 38%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 40¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 31, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" is "Françoise Faverjon-Fortin" at 40%, meaning the market assigns a 40% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Patrick Paquet" at 38%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Vanier-Les Rivières Quebec National Assembly Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.