Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent near 14.3 million sq km and persistently low spring values have preconditioned the Arctic for a below-average minimum, with forecasts centering near 4.49 million sq km. Early melt onset along Atlantic margins, above-average temperatures in key sectors, and thinner ice from prior years amplify vulnerability to summer melt driven by solar radiation and atmospheric patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4.2–4.8 million sq km because outcomes hinge on uncertain August–September weather—persistent high pressure or storms could accelerate retreat below 4.2 or allow modest recovery above 4.6, per NSIDC and model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 23.8%
4.6-4.8m sq km 23.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 17.8%
$66,635 Vol.
$66,635 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
12%
4.0-4.2m sq km
18%
4.2-4.4m sq km
24%
4.4-4.6m sq km
29%
4.6-4.8m sq km
24%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
3%
4.4-4.6m sq km 28.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 23.8%
4.6-4.8m sq km 23.7%
4.0-4.2m sq km 17.8%
$66,635 Vol.
$66,635 Vol.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$30,295 Vol.
12%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$6,497 Vol.
18%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$2,846 Vol.
24%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$3,047 Vol.
29%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$6,757 Vol.
24%
4.8-5m sq km
$2,809 Vol.
2%
5m+ sq km
$14,385 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent near 14.3 million sq km and persistently low spring values have preconditioned the Arctic for a below-average minimum, with forecasts centering near 4.49 million sq km. Early melt onset along Atlantic margins, above-average temperatures in key sectors, and thinner ice from prior years amplify vulnerability to summer melt driven by solar radiation and atmospheric patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4.2–4.8 million sq km because outcomes hinge on uncertain August–September weather—persistent high pressure or storms could accelerate retreat below 4.2 or allow modest recovery above 4.6, per NSIDC and model guidance.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$66,635End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent near 14.3 million sq km and persistently low spring values have preconditioned the Arctic for a below-average minimum, with forecasts centering near 4.49 million sq km. Early melt onset along Atlantic margins, above-average temperatures in key sectors, and thinner ice from prior years amplify vulnerability to summer melt driven by solar radiation and atmospheric patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4.2–4.8 million sq km because outcomes hinge on uncertain August–September weather—persistent high pressure or storms could accelerate retreat below 4.2 or allow modest recovery above 4.6, per NSIDC and model guidance.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$66,635End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low 2026 winter maximum extent near 14.3 million sq km and persistently low spring values have preconditioned the Arctic for a below-average minimum, with forecasts centering near 4.49 million sq km. Early melt onset along Atlantic margins, above-average temperatures in key sectors, and thinner ice from prior years amplify vulnerability to summer melt driven by solar radiation and atmospheric patterns. Trader consensus clusters tightly around 4.2–4.8 million sq km because outcomes hinge on uncertain August–September weather—persistent high pressure or storms could accelerate retreat below 4.2 or allow modest recovery above 4.6, per NSIDC and model guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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