Forecast models from Environment Canada and global ensembles currently indicate an overnight low in Toronto on September 23 between roughly 11–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with moderate easterly winds. This consensus, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover, underpins the market-implied odds clustered around mid-range outcomes while the near-even split between the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher bins reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cooling rates. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point evolution could shift the final reading by 1–2°C, with the next official update and real-time observations expected to narrow trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 23?
15°C or higher 80%
10°C 40%
6°C 36%
9°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
-
6°C
36%
7°C
21%
8°C
19%
9°C
22%
10°C
24%
11°C
21%
12°C
20%
13°C
14%
14°C
12%
15°C or higher
80%
15°C or higher 80%
10°C 40%
6°C 36%
9°C 22%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
5°C or below
$379 Vol.
-
6°C
$40 Vol.
36%
7°C
$8 Vol.
21%
8°C
$6 Vol.
19%
9°C
$0 Vol.
22%
10°C
$5 Vol.
24%
11°C
$0 Vol.
21%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C
$50 Vol.
14%
14°C
$30 Vol.
12%
15°C or higher
$40 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Environment Canada and global ensembles currently indicate an overnight low in Toronto on September 23 between roughly 11–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with moderate easterly winds. This consensus, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover, underpins the market-implied odds clustered around mid-range outcomes while the near-even split between the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher bins reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cooling rates. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point evolution could shift the final reading by 1–2°C, with the next official update and real-time observations expected to narrow trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$559End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from Environment Canada and global ensembles currently indicate an overnight low in Toronto on September 23 between roughly 11–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with moderate easterly winds. This consensus, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover, underpins the market-implied odds clustered around mid-range outcomes while the near-even split between the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher bins reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cooling rates. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point evolution could shift the final reading by 1–2°C, with the next official update and real-time observations expected to narrow trader positioning ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$559End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from Environment Canada and global ensembles currently indicate an overnight low in Toronto on September 23 between roughly 11–13°C under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with moderate easterly winds. This consensus, supported by stable high pressure and limited cloud cover, underpins the market-implied odds clustered around mid-range outcomes while the near-even split between the 5°C-or-below and 15°C-or-higher bins reflects residual uncertainty in exact minimum timing and localized cooling rates. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and dew-point evolution could shift the final reading by 1–2°C, with the next official update and real-time observations expected to narrow trader positioning ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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