**Trader consensus heavily favors an 8°C low for Toronto on September 22, 2026, with 72% implied probability, followed by 7°C at 47%.** Clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds under a high-pressure system have enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, driving temperatures down from daytime highs of 16–18°C observed at Toronto Pearson. Official Environment Canada guidance and multiple model runs project an overnight minimum near 8–10°C, consistent with late-September climatology for the region when dew points remain low around 7°C. Recent hourly observations confirm temperatures dipped to approximately 8°C in the early morning before rising, reinforcing market positioning ahead of final daily verification. No significant weather systems or cloud cover disrupted the cooling process, keeping higher outcomes below 1% probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 22?
8°C 99%
7°C 91%
3°C 64%
5°C 64%
$534 Vol.
$534 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
2°C or below
44%
3°C
64%
4°C
62%
5°C
64%
6°C
63%
7°C
91%
8°C
99%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
8°C 99%
7°C 91%
3°C 64%
5°C 64%
$534 Vol.
$534 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
2°C or below
$10 Vol.
44%
3°C
$10 Vol.
64%
4°C
$15 Vol.
62%
5°C
$73 Vol.
64%
6°C
$25 Vol.
63%
7°C
$25 Vol.
91%
8°C
$110 Vol.
99%
9°C
$136 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
12°C or higher
$40 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors an 8°C low for Toronto on September 22, 2026, with 72% implied probability, followed by 7°C at 47%.** Clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds under a high-pressure system have enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, driving temperatures down from daytime highs of 16–18°C observed at Toronto Pearson. Official Environment Canada guidance and multiple model runs project an overnight minimum near 8–10°C, consistent with late-September climatology for the region when dew points remain low around 7°C. Recent hourly observations confirm temperatures dipped to approximately 8°C in the early morning before rising, reinforcing market positioning ahead of final daily verification. No significant weather systems or cloud cover disrupted the cooling process, keeping higher outcomes below 1% probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$534End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors an 8°C low for Toronto on September 22, 2026, with 72% implied probability, followed by 7°C at 47%.** Clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds under a high-pressure system have enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, driving temperatures down from daytime highs of 16–18°C observed at Toronto Pearson. Official Environment Canada guidance and multiple model runs project an overnight minimum near 8–10°C, consistent with late-September climatology for the region when dew points remain low around 7°C. Recent hourly observations confirm temperatures dipped to approximately 8°C in the early morning before rising, reinforcing market positioning ahead of final daily verification. No significant weather systems or cloud cover disrupted the cooling process, keeping higher outcomes below 1% probability.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$534End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors an 8°C low for Toronto on September 22, 2026, with 72% implied probability, followed by 7°C at 47%.** Clear skies and moderate northeasterly winds under a high-pressure system have enabled efficient radiational cooling overnight, driving temperatures down from daytime highs of 16–18°C observed at Toronto Pearson. Official Environment Canada guidance and multiple model runs project an overnight minimum near 8–10°C, consistent with late-September climatology for the region when dew points remain low around 7°C. Recent hourly observations confirm temperatures dipped to approximately 8°C in the early morning before rising, reinforcing market positioning ahead of final daily verification. No significant weather systems or cloud cover disrupted the cooling process, keeping higher outcomes below 1% probability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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