Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show a low around 22°C for Tokyo on September 9, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain and thunderstorms that limit daytime heating and enhance overnight cooling. This setup follows warmer southerly flow earlier in the week, with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for early September supporting a minimum in the 21–23°C range. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated probabilities for 22°C and 23°C, aligns with this model agreement ahead of final overnight observations, though minor revisions in wind timing or precipitation intensity could adjust the exact reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 9?
22°C 44%
23°C 27%
21°C 22%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
3%
20°C
7%
21°C
22%
22°C
44%
23°C
27%
24°C
6%
25°C
2%
26°C
2%
27°C
2%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
22°C 44%
23°C 27%
21°C 22%
20°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
19°C or below
$35 Vol.
3%
20°C
$56 Vol.
7%
21°C
$412 Vol.
22%
22°C
$284 Vol.
44%
23°C
$924 Vol.
27%
24°C
$71 Vol.
6%
25°C
$0 Vol.
2%
26°C
$0 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
2%
28°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show a low around 22°C for Tokyo on September 9, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain and thunderstorms that limit daytime heating and enhance overnight cooling. This setup follows warmer southerly flow earlier in the week, with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for early September supporting a minimum in the 21–23°C range. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated probabilities for 22°C and 23°C, aligns with this model agreement ahead of final overnight observations, though minor revisions in wind timing or precipitation intensity could adjust the exact reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$1,912End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show a low around 22°C for Tokyo on September 9, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain and thunderstorms that limit daytime heating and enhance overnight cooling. This setup follows warmer southerly flow earlier in the week, with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for early September supporting a minimum in the 21–23°C range. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated probabilities for 22°C and 23°C, aligns with this model agreement ahead of final overnight observations, though minor revisions in wind timing or precipitation intensity could adjust the exact reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,912End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models show a low around 22°C for Tokyo on September 9, driven by a shift to northeasterly winds, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain and thunderstorms that limit daytime heating and enhance overnight cooling. This setup follows warmer southerly flow earlier in the week, with ensemble guidance and historical analogs for early September supporting a minimum in the 21–23°C range. Trader consensus, reflected in the elevated probabilities for 22°C and 23°C, aligns with this model agreement ahead of final overnight observations, though minor revisions in wind timing or precipitation intensity could adjust the exact reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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