Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models such as GFS show Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 8 stabilizing near 23 °C under persistent cloud cover, light southerly flow, and elevated humidity that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat retention and warm advection typically produce lows in the low-to-mid 20s °C. Trader positioning at 94.5 % for 23 °C reflects these model outputs and the narrow uncertainty band around the expected minimum. A sharper wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could enhance cooling and push readings to 22 °C or lower, while stronger southerly moisture transport would more likely hold temperatures at or above the current projection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
23°C 98%
22°C 3%
21°C 1.2%
20°C or below <1%
NEW
$15,042 Vol.
NEW
$15,042 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
1%
21°C
1%
22°C
3%
23°C
98%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
23°C 98%
22°C 3%
21°C 1.2%
20°C or below <1%
NEW
$15,042 Vol.
NEW
$15,042 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
20°C or below
$913 Vol.
1%
21°C
$1,611 Vol.
1%
22°C
$586 Vol.
3%
23°C
$2,242 Vol.
98%
24°C
$3,363 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$2,309 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,679 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$460 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$649 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models such as GFS show Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 8 stabilizing near 23 °C under persistent cloud cover, light southerly flow, and elevated humidity that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat retention and warm advection typically produce lows in the low-to-mid 20s °C. Trader positioning at 94.5 % for 23 °C reflects these model outputs and the narrow uncertainty band around the expected minimum. A sharper wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could enhance cooling and push readings to 22 °C or lower, while stronger southerly moisture transport would more likely hold temperatures at or above the current projection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$15,042End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models such as GFS show Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 8 stabilizing near 23 °C under persistent cloud cover, light southerly flow, and elevated humidity that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat retention and warm advection typically produce lows in the low-to-mid 20s °C. Trader positioning at 94.5 % for 23 °C reflects these model outputs and the narrow uncertainty band around the expected minimum. A sharper wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could enhance cooling and push readings to 22 °C or lower, while stronger southerly moisture transport would more likely hold temperatures at or above the current projection.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$15,042End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models such as GFS show Tokyo’s overnight minimum on September 8 stabilizing near 23 °C under persistent cloud cover, light southerly flow, and elevated humidity that limits radiative cooling. This consensus aligns with late-summer climatology for the region, where urban heat retention and warm advection typically produce lows in the low-to-mid 20s °C. Trader positioning at 94.5 % for 23 °C reflects these model outputs and the narrow uncertainty band around the expected minimum. A sharper wind shift to northerly flow or unexpected clearing could enhance cooling and push readings to 22 °C or lower, while stronger southerly moisture transport would more likely hold temperatures at or above the current projection.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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