**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions 30°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 8, with 29°C a close second.** Northerly winds and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating, consistent with recent China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble outputs showing highs clustered between 29–31°C. This aligns with typical early-September conditions under a stable post-monsoon pattern, where observed highs in the prior week have hovered near 30°C. Traders assign over 96% combined probability to 29–30°C because model spreads remain narrow with minimal uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, though any unexpected increase in insolation or wind shift could nudge the outcome toward 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
30°C 59%
29°C 37%
31°C 4%
28°C 3%
NEW
$25,690 Vol.
NEW
$25,690 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
37%
30°C
59%
31°C
4%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 59%
29°C 37%
31°C 4%
28°C 3%
NEW
$25,690 Vol.
NEW
$25,690 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
24°C or below
$286 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$250 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$2,520 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$2,496 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$4,396 Vol.
3%
29°C
$6,194 Vol.
37%
30°C
$6,670 Vol.
59%
31°C
$2,205 Vol.
4%
32°C
$674 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$235 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$130 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions 30°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 8, with 29°C a close second.**
Northerly winds and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating, consistent with recent China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble outputs showing highs clustered between 29–31°C. This aligns with typical early-September conditions under a stable post-monsoon pattern, where observed highs in the prior week have hovered near 30°C. Traders assign over 96% combined probability to 29–30°C because model spreads remain narrow with minimal uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, though any unexpected increase in insolation or wind shift could nudge the outcome toward 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$25,690End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions 30°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 8, with 29°C a close second.**
Northerly winds and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating, consistent with recent China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble outputs showing highs clustered between 29–31°C. This aligns with typical early-September conditions under a stable post-monsoon pattern, where observed highs in the prior week have hovered near 30°C. Traders assign over 96% combined probability to 29–30°C because model spreads remain narrow with minimal uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, though any unexpected increase in insolation or wind shift could nudge the outcome toward 31°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,690End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Model consensus from global and regional forecasts positions 30°C as the most likely daily maximum for Shanghai on September 8, with 29°C a close second.** Northerly winds and partly cloudy skies are expected to limit daytime heating, consistent with recent China Meteorological Administration guidance and ensemble outputs showing highs clustered between 29–31°C. This aligns with typical early-September conditions under a stable post-monsoon pattern, where observed highs in the prior week have hovered near 30°C. Traders assign over 96% combined probability to 29–30°C because model spreads remain narrow with minimal uncertainty in the final 24-hour window, though any unexpected increase in insolation or wind shift could nudge the outcome toward 31°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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