Strong containment measures and limited geographic spread underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. Official data from the CDC and WHO show a Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Ituri province, with roughly 4,566 confirmed cases and 2,128 deaths as of mid-August 2026, plus a smaller cluster in Uganda that ended in late July. Transmission remains focal, with no sustained chains reported outside central Africa and zero cases in the United States or other continents. Historical Ebola outbreaks have rarely exceeded regional bounds due to high case fatality, rapid symptom onset, and effective contact tracing. While model projections indicate potential for several thousand additional cases if control weakens, the absence of airborne transmission, robust international surveillance, and low traveler risk keep escalation to pandemic status improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% chance
$690,674 Vol.
$690,674 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$690,674 Vol.
$690,674 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment measures and limited geographic spread underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. Official data from the CDC and WHO show a Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Ituri province, with roughly 4,566 confirmed cases and 2,128 deaths as of mid-August 2026, plus a smaller cluster in Uganda that ended in late July. Transmission remains focal, with no sustained chains reported outside central Africa and zero cases in the United States or other continents. Historical Ebola outbreaks have rarely exceeded regional bounds due to high case fatality, rapid symptom onset, and effective contact tracing. While model projections indicate potential for several thousand additional cases if control weakens, the absence of airborne transmission, robust international surveillance, and low traveler risk keep escalation to pandemic status improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Volume
$690,674End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong containment measures and limited geographic spread underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. Official data from the CDC and WHO show a Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Ituri province, with roughly 4,566 confirmed cases and 2,128 deaths as of mid-August 2026, plus a smaller cluster in Uganda that ended in late July. Transmission remains focal, with no sustained chains reported outside central Africa and zero cases in the United States or other continents. Historical Ebola outbreaks have rarely exceeded regional bounds due to high case fatality, rapid symptom onset, and effective contact tracing. While model projections indicate potential for several thousand additional cases if control weakens, the absence of airborne transmission, robust international surveillance, and low traveler risk keep escalation to pandemic status improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$690,674End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong containment measures and limited geographic spread underpin the 96.3% market-implied probability against an Ebola pandemic in 2026. Official data from the CDC and WHO show a Bundibugyo virus outbreak centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo's Ituri province, with roughly 4,566 confirmed cases and 2,128 deaths as of mid-August 2026, plus a smaller cluster in Uganda that ended in late July. Transmission remains focal, with no sustained chains reported outside central Africa and zero cases in the United States or other continents. Historical Ebola outbreaks have rarely exceeded regional bounds due to high case fatality, rapid symptom onset, and effective contact tracing. While model projections indicate potential for several thousand additional cases if control weakens, the absence of airborne transmission, robust international surveillance, and low traveler risk keep escalation to pandemic status improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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