Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus favor a daytime peak near 29°C in Tokyo on September 8 amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southerly flow that limits surface heating. Higher trader weighting on 29–30°C reflects the balance between urban heat retention and rain-cooled boundary layers, while 28°C odds capture scenarios of thicker cloud decks or earlier precipitation suppressing the maximum. Key variables include shower timing, dew-point depression, and wind gusts that could briefly enhance mixing or maintain stratiform cloud; updated short-range runs and surface observations through the afternoon will clarify whether the peak edges toward 30°C or settles lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
29°C 31%
30°C 24%
28°C 24%
27°C 9%
NEW
$26,312 Vol.
NEW
$26,312 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
26°C or below
5%
27°C
9%
28°C
24%
29°C
31%
30°C
24%
31°C
9%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C or higher
<1%
29°C 31%
30°C 24%
28°C 24%
27°C 9%
NEW
$26,312 Vol.
NEW
$26,312 Vol.
Sep 8, 2026
26°C or below
$4,811 Vol.
5%
27°C
$3,604 Vol.
9%
28°C
$3,869 Vol.
24%
29°C
$2,577 Vol.
31%
30°C
$2,997 Vol.
24%
31°C
$1,503 Vol.
9%
32°C
$2,610 Vol.
2%
33°C
$427 Vol.
<1%
34°C
$1,297 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,319 Vol.
<1%
36°C or higher
$1,298 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus favor a daytime peak near 29°C in Tokyo on September 8 amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southerly flow that limits surface heating. Higher trader weighting on 29–30°C reflects the balance between urban heat retention and rain-cooled boundary layers, while 28°C odds capture scenarios of thicker cloud decks or earlier precipitation suppressing the maximum. Key variables include shower timing, dew-point depression, and wind gusts that could briefly enhance mixing or maintain stratiform cloud; updated short-range runs and surface observations through the afternoon will clarify whether the peak edges toward 30°C or settles lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$26,312End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus favor a daytime peak near 29°C in Tokyo on September 8 amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southerly flow that limits surface heating. Higher trader weighting on 29–30°C reflects the balance between urban heat retention and rain-cooled boundary layers, while 28°C odds capture scenarios of thicker cloud decks or earlier precipitation suppressing the maximum. Key variables include shower timing, dew-point depression, and wind gusts that could briefly enhance mixing or maintain stratiform cloud; updated short-range runs and surface observations through the afternoon will clarify whether the peak edges toward 30°C or settles lower.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,312End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent JMA guidance and ensemble model consensus favor a daytime peak near 29°C in Tokyo on September 8 amid persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and moderate southerly flow that limits surface heating. Higher trader weighting on 29–30°C reflects the balance between urban heat retention and rain-cooled boundary layers, while 28°C odds capture scenarios of thicker cloud decks or earlier precipitation suppressing the maximum. Key variables include shower timing, dew-point depression, and wind gusts that could briefly enhance mixing or maintain stratiform cloud; updated short-range runs and surface observations through the afternoon will clarify whether the peak edges toward 30°C or settles lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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