Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show Tokyo's overnight minimum on September 23 settling in the 20–22°C range amid persistent cloud cover, light northeast winds, and scattered light rain that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 20–21°C further anchor the low near these values, consistent with recent days' stable pattern following heavy rainfall earlier in the month. Trader consensus reflected in the market—21°C leading at 45.5% followed closely by 22°C and 20°C—tracks this narrow forecast spread, with only minor model divergence on exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance overnight or early on the 23rd could shift probabilities if winds strengthen or skies break.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 23?
21°C 46%
22°C 22%
20°C 16%
19°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
17°C or below
1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
1%
20°C
22%
21°C
46%
22°C
22%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 46%
22°C 22%
20°C 16%
19°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
17°C or below
$35 Vol.
1%
18°C
$106 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$139 Vol.
1%
20°C
$649 Vol.
22%
21°C
$1,141 Vol.
46%
22°C
$984 Vol.
22%
23°C
$826 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$65 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show Tokyo's overnight minimum on September 23 settling in the 20–22°C range amid persistent cloud cover, light northeast winds, and scattered light rain that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 20–21°C further anchor the low near these values, consistent with recent days' stable pattern following heavy rainfall earlier in the month. Trader consensus reflected in the market—21°C leading at 45.5% followed closely by 22°C and 20°C—tracks this narrow forecast spread, with only minor model divergence on exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance overnight or early on the 23rd could shift probabilities if winds strengthen or skies break.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,995End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show Tokyo's overnight minimum on September 23 settling in the 20–22°C range amid persistent cloud cover, light northeast winds, and scattered light rain that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 20–21°C further anchor the low near these values, consistent with recent days' stable pattern following heavy rainfall earlier in the month. Trader consensus reflected in the market—21°C leading at 45.5% followed closely by 22°C and 20°C—tracks this narrow forecast spread, with only minor model divergence on exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance overnight or early on the 23rd could shift probabilities if winds strengthen or skies break.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,995End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles show Tokyo's overnight minimum on September 23 settling in the 20–22°C range amid persistent cloud cover, light northeast winds, and scattered light rain that limits radiative cooling. High humidity near 80–90% and dew points around 20–21°C further anchor the low near these values, consistent with recent days' stable pattern following heavy rainfall earlier in the month. Trader consensus reflected in the market—21°C leading at 45.5% followed closely by 22°C and 20°C—tracks this narrow forecast spread, with only minor model divergence on exact timing of any clearing. Updated guidance overnight or early on the 23rd could shift probabilities if winds strengthen or skies break.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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