**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 26 minimum temperature centers on model consensus for overnight lows near 27–28°C.** Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated relative to seasonal normals around 23°C. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs from multiple global models show the overnight minimum stabilizing in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 25–26°C. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day shower activity could shift the realized low by 1°C either way, explaining the near-even split between the 27°C and 28°C contracts. Updated model runs through the evening of the 25th remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
28°C 47%
27°C 43%
25°C 12%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
12%
26°C
7%
27°C
43%
28°C
47%
29°C
10%
30°C
2%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 47%
27°C 43%
25°C 12%
29°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
22°C or below
$770 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$173 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$128 Vol.
1%
25°C
$137 Vol.
12%
26°C
$156 Vol.
7%
27°C
$476 Vol.
43%
28°C
$347 Vol.
47%
29°C
$330 Vol.
10%
30°C
$89 Vol.
2%
31°C
$251 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$101 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 26 minimum temperature centers on model consensus for overnight lows near 27–28°C.** Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated relative to seasonal normals around 23°C. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs from multiple global models show the overnight minimum stabilizing in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 25–26°C. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day shower activity could shift the realized low by 1°C either way, explaining the near-even split between the 27°C and 28°C contracts. Updated model runs through the evening of the 25th remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,957End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 26 minimum temperature centers on model consensus for overnight lows near 27–28°C.** Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated relative to seasonal normals around 23°C. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs from multiple global models show the overnight minimum stabilizing in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 25–26°C. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day shower activity could shift the realized low by 1°C either way, explaining the near-even split between the 27°C and 28°C contracts. Updated model runs through the evening of the 25th remain the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,957End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for Tokyo’s August 26 minimum temperature centers on model consensus for overnight lows near 27–28°C.** Persistent high humidity, light southerly flow, and limited cloud cover overnight are limiting radiative cooling, keeping temperatures elevated relative to seasonal normals around 23°C. Official JMA guidance and ensemble runs from multiple global models show the overnight minimum stabilizing in this narrow band under partly cloudy skies with dew points near 25–26°C. Small differences in boundary-layer mixing and any late-day shower activity could shift the realized low by 1°C either way, explaining the near-even split between the 27°C and 28°C contracts. Updated model runs through the evening of the 25th remain the key near-term catalyst.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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