Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 26 of 33–35°C under the influence of a strong Pacific High, with the market’s tight clustering around 34°C (33.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) reflecting uncertainty over exact peak timing and any late-day cloud cover or scattered showers. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Honshu this summer, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns, support the elevated baseline, while historical late-August averages near 31°C underscore the current anomaly. Key resolution hinges on afternoon observations from official stations, with any intensification of monsoon moisture or earlier convection potentially capping the high at 33°C and clearer conditions allowing a push toward 36°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 26?
34°C 34%
35°C 29%
36°C 15%
33°C 14%
NEW
$10,741 Vol.
NEW
$10,741 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
4%
33°C
14%
34°C
34%
35°C
29%
36°C
15%
37°C
4%
38°C or higher
1%
34°C 34%
35°C 29%
36°C 15%
33°C 14%
NEW
$10,741 Vol.
NEW
$10,741 Vol.
Aug 26, 2026
28°C or below
$1,354 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$1,454 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$188 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$440 Vol.
2%
32°C
$274 Vol.
4%
33°C
$314 Vol.
14%
34°C
$580 Vol.
34%
35°C
$897 Vol.
29%
36°C
$1,182 Vol.
15%
37°C
$211 Vol.
4%
38°C or higher
$3,847 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 26 of 33–35°C under the influence of a strong Pacific High, with the market’s tight clustering around 34°C (33.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) reflecting uncertainty over exact peak timing and any late-day cloud cover or scattered showers. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Honshu this summer, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns, support the elevated baseline, while historical late-August averages near 31°C underscore the current anomaly. Key resolution hinges on afternoon observations from official stations, with any intensification of monsoon moisture or earlier convection potentially capping the high at 33°C and clearer conditions allowing a push toward 36°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$10,741End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 26 of 33–35°C under the influence of a strong Pacific High, with the market’s tight clustering around 34°C (33.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) reflecting uncertainty over exact peak timing and any late-day cloud cover or scattered showers. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Honshu this summer, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns, support the elevated baseline, while historical late-August averages near 31°C underscore the current anomaly. Key resolution hinges on afternoon observations from official stations, with any intensification of monsoon moisture or earlier convection potentially capping the high at 33°C and clearer conditions allowing a push toward 36°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$10,741End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and other models point to a maximum temperature in Tokyo on August 26 of 33–35°C under the influence of a strong Pacific High, with the market’s tight clustering around 34°C (33.5%) and 35°C (28.5%) reflecting uncertainty over exact peak timing and any late-day cloud cover or scattered showers. Above-normal seasonal temperatures across Honshu this summer, driven by persistent high-pressure patterns, support the elevated baseline, while historical late-August averages near 31°C underscore the current anomaly. Key resolution hinges on afternoon observations from official stations, with any intensification of monsoon moisture or earlier convection potentially capping the high at 33°C and clearer conditions allowing a push toward 36°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions