**Persistent warm, humid air and light southerly flow overnight have kept Tokyo temperatures elevated, supporting the market’s overwhelming 98.5% consensus on a 28°C minimum for August 25.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and regional model runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold, consistent with recent nights where dew points remained above 24°C and minimal radiational cooling occurred under partly cloudy skies. Historical August climatology for central Tokyo shows typical minima of 23–25°C, so current conditions represent a notable departure driven by the ongoing warm advection. A sharp shift to northerly winds, increased cloud cover with rain, or stronger radiative cooling could push the minimum lower, though none of these developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 25?
28°C 99%
26°C 2%
27°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
$11,932 Vol.
$11,932 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
99%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
28°C 99%
26°C 2%
27°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
$11,932 Vol.
$11,932 Vol.
Aug 25, 2026
21°C or below
$2,394 Vol.
1%
22°C
$178 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$710 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,064 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$1,283 Vol.
1%
26°C
$1,018 Vol.
2%
27°C
$1,842 Vol.
1%
28°C
$1,315 Vol.
99%
29°C
$1,288 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$278 Vol.
<1%
31°C or higher
$563 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid air and light southerly flow overnight have kept Tokyo temperatures elevated, supporting the market’s overwhelming 98.5% consensus on a 28°C minimum for August 25.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and regional model runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold, consistent with recent nights where dew points remained above 24°C and minimal radiational cooling occurred under partly cloudy skies. Historical August climatology for central Tokyo shows typical minima of 23–25°C, so current conditions represent a notable departure driven by the ongoing warm advection. A sharp shift to northerly winds, increased cloud cover with rain, or stronger radiative cooling could push the minimum lower, though none of these developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$11,932End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent warm, humid air and light southerly flow overnight have kept Tokyo temperatures elevated, supporting the market’s overwhelming 98.5% consensus on a 28°C minimum for August 25.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and regional model runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold, consistent with recent nights where dew points remained above 24°C and minimal radiational cooling occurred under partly cloudy skies. Historical August climatology for central Tokyo shows typical minima of 23–25°C, so current conditions represent a notable departure driven by the ongoing warm advection. A sharp shift to northerly winds, increased cloud cover with rain, or stronger radiative cooling could push the minimum lower, though none of these developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$11,932End Date
Aug 25, 2026Market Opened
Aug 23, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent warm, humid air and light southerly flow overnight have kept Tokyo temperatures elevated, supporting the market’s overwhelming 98.5% consensus on a 28°C minimum for August 25.** Official Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and regional model runs indicate overnight lows stabilizing near this threshold, consistent with recent nights where dew points remained above 24°C and minimal radiational cooling occurred under partly cloudy skies. Historical August climatology for central Tokyo shows typical minima of 23–25°C, so current conditions represent a notable departure driven by the ongoing warm advection. A sharp shift to northerly winds, increased cloud cover with rain, or stronger radiative cooling could push the minimum lower, though none of these developments appear imminent in the latest guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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