Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 15, driven by typical mid-August subtropical high pressure with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity and possible scattered showers. Model consensus shows stable steering patterns and no incoming typhoon or frontal systems to alter the nocturnal temperature profile significantly, keeping values within the historical August low range of 22–25°C. Trader emphasis on 24°C as the modal outcome aligns with this narrow forecast band and average climatological baseline near 24°C, while lower probabilities for 22°C or 25°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and local urban heat island effects ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on August 15?
24°C 52%
23°C 26%
25°C 19%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
6%
23°C
26%
24°C
52%
25°C
19%
26°C
2%
27°C
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 52%
23°C 26%
25°C 19%
22°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
19°C or below
$12 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$12 Vol.
1%
21°C
$76 Vol.
2%
22°C
$0 Vol.
6%
23°C
$648 Vol.
26%
24°C
$266 Vol.
52%
25°C
$950 Vol.
19%
26°C
$101 Vol.
2%
27°C
$73 Vol.
1%
28°C
$62 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$83 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 15, driven by typical mid-August subtropical high pressure with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity and possible scattered showers. Model consensus shows stable steering patterns and no incoming typhoon or frontal systems to alter the nocturnal temperature profile significantly, keeping values within the historical August low range of 22–25°C. Trader emphasis on 24°C as the modal outcome aligns with this narrow forecast band and average climatological baseline near 24°C, while lower probabilities for 22°C or 25°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and local urban heat island effects ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ET
Volume
$2,283End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 15, driven by typical mid-August subtropical high pressure with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity and possible scattered showers. Model consensus shows stable steering patterns and no incoming typhoon or frontal systems to alter the nocturnal temperature profile significantly, keeping values within the historical August low range of 22–25°C. Trader emphasis on 24°C as the modal outcome aligns with this narrow forecast band and average climatological baseline near 24°C, while lower probabilities for 22°C or 25°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and local urban heat island effects ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,283End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:28 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the Japan Meteorological Agency and Met Office indicate a minimum temperature near 23–24°C for Tokyo on August 15, driven by typical mid-August subtropical high pressure with overnight radiative cooling limited by high humidity and possible scattered showers. Model consensus shows stable steering patterns and no incoming typhoon or frontal systems to alter the nocturnal temperature profile significantly, keeping values within the historical August low range of 22–25°C. Trader emphasis on 24°C as the modal outcome aligns with this narrow forecast band and average climatological baseline near 24°C, while lower probabilities for 22°C or 25°C reflect residual uncertainty in cloud cover and local urban heat island effects ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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