Traders see near-even odds between 25°C and 26°C because multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows in that narrow range for Shenzhen on September 23, driven by persistent easterly flow, high humidity near 80-90%, and patchy cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Recent observations from local stations show minimums stabilizing around 26-27°C amid similar subtropical conditions, with any slight dip hinging on the timing and intensity of short-lived showers that could enhance evaporative cooling. Model spreads remain small, reflecting typical late-September variability rather than a strong synoptic shift, while official China Meteorological Administration guidance points to stable easterly winds and dew points near 24°C that cap further drops. Upcoming model runs and evening observations will likely resolve the tight margin before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 23?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 23?
23°C 95%
24°C 94%
26°C 51%
25°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
22°C or below
2%
23°C
95%
24°C
94%
25°C
49%
26°C
51%
27°C
48%
28°C
48%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
23°C 95%
24°C 94%
26°C 51%
25°C 49%
NEW
NEW
Sep 23, 2026
22°C or below
$200 Vol.
2%
23°C
$25 Vol.
95%
24°C
$115 Vol.
94%
25°C
$0 Vol.
49%
26°C
$0 Vol.
51%
27°C
$19 Vol.
48%
28°C
$51 Vol.
48%
29°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$49 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$140 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$115 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see near-even odds between 25°C and 26°C because multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows in that narrow range for Shenzhen on September 23, driven by persistent easterly flow, high humidity near 80-90%, and patchy cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Recent observations from local stations show minimums stabilizing around 26-27°C amid similar subtropical conditions, with any slight dip hinging on the timing and intensity of short-lived showers that could enhance evaporative cooling. Model spreads remain small, reflecting typical late-September variability rather than a strong synoptic shift, while official China Meteorological Administration guidance points to stable easterly winds and dew points near 24°C that cap further drops. Upcoming model runs and evening observations will likely resolve the tight margin before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$730End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see near-even odds between 25°C and 26°C because multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows in that narrow range for Shenzhen on September 23, driven by persistent easterly flow, high humidity near 80-90%, and patchy cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Recent observations from local stations show minimums stabilizing around 26-27°C amid similar subtropical conditions, with any slight dip hinging on the timing and intensity of short-lived showers that could enhance evaporative cooling. Model spreads remain small, reflecting typical late-September variability rather than a strong synoptic shift, while official China Meteorological Administration guidance points to stable easterly winds and dew points near 24°C that cap further drops. Upcoming model runs and evening observations will likely resolve the tight margin before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$730End Date
Sep 23, 2026Market Opened
Sep 21, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see near-even odds between 25°C and 26°C because multiple forecast models converge on overnight lows in that narrow range for Shenzhen on September 23, driven by persistent easterly flow, high humidity near 80-90%, and patchy cloud cover limiting radiative cooling. Recent observations from local stations show minimums stabilizing around 26-27°C amid similar subtropical conditions, with any slight dip hinging on the timing and intensity of short-lived showers that could enhance evaporative cooling. Model spreads remain small, reflecting typical late-September variability rather than a strong synoptic shift, while official China Meteorological Administration guidance points to stable easterly winds and dew points near 24°C that cap further drops. Upcoming model runs and evening observations will likely resolve the tight margin before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions