Forecast models from multiple sources indicate Shenzhen's September 24 high will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with late-summer subtropical patterns featuring easterly flow, moderate humidity near 70–80%, and partly cloudy skies with limited afternoon convection. Recent observations show daily maxima around 31–32°C under similar conditions, with light rain chances on the 23rd–24th potentially capping peaks near the lower end of that band. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering without strong signals for either significant cooling from cloud cover or rapid warming under clearer skies. Traders appear to weigh these narrow model spreads and historical September variability when pricing the 32°C outcome highest, with resolution hinging on the final observed maximum reported by official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 24?
32°C 39%
33°C 29%
31°C 27%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
6%
31°C
27%
32°C
39%
33°C
29%
34°C
2%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
32°C 39%
33°C 29%
31°C 27%
30°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
27°C or below
$94 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$54 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$375 Vol.
2%
30°C
$619 Vol.
6%
31°C
$1,086 Vol.
27%
32°C
$1,853 Vol.
39%
33°C
$4,439 Vol.
29%
34°C
$628 Vol.
2%
35°C
$73 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$95 Vol.
<1%
37°C or higher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple sources indicate Shenzhen's September 24 high will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with late-summer subtropical patterns featuring easterly flow, moderate humidity near 70–80%, and partly cloudy skies with limited afternoon convection. Recent observations show daily maxima around 31–32°C under similar conditions, with light rain chances on the 23rd–24th potentially capping peaks near the lower end of that band. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering without strong signals for either significant cooling from cloud cover or rapid warming under clearer skies. Traders appear to weigh these narrow model spreads and historical September variability when pricing the 32°C outcome highest, with resolution hinging on the final observed maximum reported by official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,411End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple sources indicate Shenzhen's September 24 high will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with late-summer subtropical patterns featuring easterly flow, moderate humidity near 70–80%, and partly cloudy skies with limited afternoon convection. Recent observations show daily maxima around 31–32°C under similar conditions, with light rain chances on the 23rd–24th potentially capping peaks near the lower end of that band. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering without strong signals for either significant cooling from cloud cover or rapid warming under clearer skies. Traders appear to weigh these narrow model spreads and historical September variability when pricing the 32°C outcome highest, with resolution hinging on the final observed maximum reported by official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,411End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from multiple sources indicate Shenzhen's September 24 high will likely fall in the 31–33°C range, consistent with late-summer subtropical patterns featuring easterly flow, moderate humidity near 70–80%, and partly cloudy skies with limited afternoon convection. Recent observations show daily maxima around 31–32°C under similar conditions, with light rain chances on the 23rd–24th potentially capping peaks near the lower end of that band. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering without strong signals for either significant cooling from cloud cover or rapid warming under clearer skies. Traders appear to weigh these narrow model spreads and historical September variability when pricing the 32°C outcome highest, with resolution hinging on the final observed maximum reported by official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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