Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature of 19–20°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend featuring increased cloud cover, light rain, and northwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 15–18°C and explains the market's 80.5% implied probability for 22°C or below. Model consensus shows limited upward revision risk overnight, as the cooling pattern has stabilized ahead of the resolution window, with any thunderstorm activity expected mainly during daytime hours rather than affecting the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 15?
22°C or below 80%
23°C 16%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
80%
23°C
16%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
22°C or below 80%
23°C 16%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 15, 2026
22°C or below
$2,796 Vol.
80%
23°C
$1,867 Vol.
16%
24°C
$619 Vol.
1%
25°C
$464 Vol.
1%
26°C
$312 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$376 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$326 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$321 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$426 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$377 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature of 19–20°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend featuring increased cloud cover, light rain, and northwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 15–18°C and explains the market's 80.5% implied probability for 22°C or below. Model consensus shows limited upward revision risk overnight, as the cooling pattern has stabilized ahead of the resolution window, with any thunderstorm activity expected mainly during daytime hours rather than affecting the daily minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ET
Volume
$8,209End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature of 19–20°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend featuring increased cloud cover, light rain, and northwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 15–18°C and explains the market's 80.5% implied probability for 22°C or below. Model consensus shows limited upward revision risk overnight, as the cooling pattern has stabilized ahead of the resolution window, with any thunderstorm activity expected mainly during daytime hours rather than affecting the daily minimum.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,209End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 1:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from agencies including the UK Met Office and BBC Weather indicate a minimum temperature of 19–20°C in Paris on August 15, driven by a post-heatwave cooling trend featuring increased cloud cover, light rain, and northwesterly flow. This aligns with climatological August lows averaging 15–18°C and explains the market's 80.5% implied probability for 22°C or below. Model consensus shows limited upward revision risk overnight, as the cooling pattern has stabilized ahead of the resolution window, with any thunderstorm activity expected mainly during daytime hours rather than affecting the daily minimum.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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