Recent forecasts from Russian meteorological agencies and international models converge on overnight lows of 11–13°C in Moscow on August 26 amid persistent northwest flow from a Scandinavian anticyclone, light rain, and cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, with 10–11°C and 15°C clusters reflecting minor model spread and typical observation uncertainty around the climatological average low of 11.6°C. Cooler-than-normal conditions through late August have reinforced trader consensus on this narrow band, though final official minimum readings could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Moscow on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on August 26?
12°C 44%
15°C 38.8%
11°C 28%
10°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
26%
10°C
27%
11°C
28%
12°C
44%
13°C
27%
14°C
26%
15°C
39%
16°C
1%
17°C or higher
1%
12°C 44%
15°C 38.8%
11°C 28%
10°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
7°C or below
$5 Vol.
1%
8°C
$5 Vol.
1%
9°C
$0 Vol.
26%
10°C
$0 Vol.
27%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
44%
13°C
$0 Vol.
27%
14°C
$0 Vol.
26%
15°C
$0 Vol.
39%
16°C
$230 Vol.
1%
17°C or higher
$135 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Russian meteorological agencies and international models converge on overnight lows of 11–13°C in Moscow on August 26 amid persistent northwest flow from a Scandinavian anticyclone, light rain, and cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, with 10–11°C and 15°C clusters reflecting minor model spread and typical observation uncertainty around the climatological average low of 11.6°C. Cooler-than-normal conditions through late August have reinforced trader consensus on this narrow band, though final official minimum readings could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$375End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Russian meteorological agencies and international models converge on overnight lows of 11–13°C in Moscow on August 26 amid persistent northwest flow from a Scandinavian anticyclone, light rain, and cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, with 10–11°C and 15°C clusters reflecting minor model spread and typical observation uncertainty around the climatological average low of 11.6°C. Cooler-than-normal conditions through late August have reinforced trader consensus on this narrow band, though final official minimum readings could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$375End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Russian meteorological agencies and international models converge on overnight lows of 11–13°C in Moscow on August 26 amid persistent northwest flow from a Scandinavian anticyclone, light rain, and cloud cover that limits radiative cooling. This positions the 12°C outcome as the market leader at 44.5% implied probability, with 10–11°C and 15°C clusters reflecting minor model spread and typical observation uncertainty around the climatological average low of 11.6°C. Cooler-than-normal conditions through late August have reinforced trader consensus on this narrow band, though final official minimum readings could shift probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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