**Clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure system are driving Milan’s overnight minimum toward the low-to-mid teens Celsius on September 22.** Official forecasts and model consensus place the day’s low between roughly 17–20 °C, yet the tightly matched Polymarket prices on 15 °C and 16 °C (both near 50 %) reflect trader recognition of small-scale uncertainties: slight variations in cloud cover timing, urban heat-island effects, and differences among high-resolution models can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. With no significant frontal activity or moisture advection expected, the market-implied odds capture the narrow window between typical late-September radiative cooling and the modest buffering from residual humidity and light winds. Updated NHC/NOAA-style regional guidance and station observations later tonight will likely resolve the remaining spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 22?
16°C 99.4%
13°C 20%
12°C or below 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
$619 Vol.
$619 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
20%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
99%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
16°C 99.4%
13°C 20%
12°C or below 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
$619 Vol.
$619 Vol.
Sep 22, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Vol.
1%
13°C
$22 Vol.
20%
14°C
$0 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
1%
16°C
$358 Vol.
99%
17°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$51 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure system are driving Milan’s overnight minimum toward the low-to-mid teens Celsius on September 22.** Official forecasts and model consensus place the day’s low between roughly 17–20 °C, yet the tightly matched Polymarket prices on 15 °C and 16 °C (both near 50 %) reflect trader recognition of small-scale uncertainties: slight variations in cloud cover timing, urban heat-island effects, and differences among high-resolution models can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. With no significant frontal activity or moisture advection expected, the market-implied odds capture the narrow window between typical late-September radiative cooling and the modest buffering from residual humidity and light winds. Updated NHC/NOAA-style regional guidance and station observations later tonight will likely resolve the remaining spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$619End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure system are driving Milan’s overnight minimum toward the low-to-mid teens Celsius on September 22.** Official forecasts and model consensus place the day’s low between roughly 17–20 °C, yet the tightly matched Polymarket prices on 15 °C and 16 °C (both near 50 %) reflect trader recognition of small-scale uncertainties: slight variations in cloud cover timing, urban heat-island effects, and differences among high-resolution models can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. With no significant frontal activity or moisture advection expected, the market-implied odds capture the narrow window between typical late-September radiative cooling and the modest buffering from residual humidity and light winds. Updated NHC/NOAA-style regional guidance and station observations later tonight will likely resolve the remaining spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$619End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Clear skies, light easterly winds, and radiative cooling under a stable high-pressure system are driving Milan’s overnight minimum toward the low-to-mid teens Celsius on September 22.** Official forecasts and model consensus place the day’s low between roughly 17–20 °C, yet the tightly matched Polymarket prices on 15 °C and 16 °C (both near 50 %) reflect trader recognition of small-scale uncertainties: slight variations in cloud cover timing, urban heat-island effects, and differences among high-resolution models can shift the recorded minimum by 1–2 °C. With no significant frontal activity or moisture advection expected, the market-implied odds capture the narrow window between typical late-September radiative cooling and the modest buffering from residual humidity and light winds. Updated NHC/NOAA-style regional guidance and station observations later tonight will likely resolve the remaining spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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