Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS consensus point to overnight lows of 13–15°C in Milan on September 24 under partly cloudy skies, light winds shifting from easterly to westerly, and a stable high-pressure regime that favors radiative cooling after daytime highs near 24–25°C. Recent observations show minimal precipitation and moderate humidity, with no strong frontal systems or anomalous advection expected in the next 48 hours. Model spread on exact minimum temperatures—particularly cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing—creates the near-even market split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes, though climatological September averages (lows near 14–16°C) align more closely with the central probabilities around 13–15°C. Updated runs overnight will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Milan on September 24?
Lowest temperature in Milan on September 24?
8°C or below 98%
18°C or higher 97%
12°C 40%
15°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
8°C or below
98%
9°C
16%
10°C
18%
11°C
37%
12°C
40%
13°C
22%
14°C
37%
15°C
38%
16°C
38%
17°C
14%
18°C or higher
97%
8°C or below 98%
18°C or higher 97%
12°C 40%
15°C 38%
NEW
NEW
Sep 24, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
98%
9°C
$0 Vol.
16%
10°C
$0 Vol.
18%
11°C
$0 Vol.
37%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
22%
14°C
$0 Vol.
37%
15°C
$0 Vol.
38%
16°C
$0 Vol.
38%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS consensus point to overnight lows of 13–15°C in Milan on September 24 under partly cloudy skies, light winds shifting from easterly to westerly, and a stable high-pressure regime that favors radiative cooling after daytime highs near 24–25°C. Recent observations show minimal precipitation and moderate humidity, with no strong frontal systems or anomalous advection expected in the next 48 hours. Model spread on exact minimum temperatures—particularly cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing—creates the near-even market split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes, though climatological September averages (lows near 14–16°C) align more closely with the central probabilities around 13–15°C. Updated runs overnight will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS consensus point to overnight lows of 13–15°C in Milan on September 24 under partly cloudy skies, light winds shifting from easterly to westerly, and a stable high-pressure regime that favors radiative cooling after daytime highs near 24–25°C. Recent observations show minimal precipitation and moderate humidity, with no strong frontal systems or anomalous advection expected in the next 48 hours. Model spread on exact minimum temperatures—particularly cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing—creates the near-even market split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes, though climatological September averages (lows near 14–16°C) align more closely with the central probabilities around 13–15°C. Updated runs overnight will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 24, 2026Market Opened
Sep 22, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS consensus point to overnight lows of 13–15°C in Milan on September 24 under partly cloudy skies, light winds shifting from easterly to westerly, and a stable high-pressure regime that favors radiative cooling after daytime highs near 24–25°C. Recent observations show minimal precipitation and moderate humidity, with no strong frontal systems or anomalous advection expected in the next 48 hours. Model spread on exact minimum temperatures—particularly cloud cover timing and boundary-layer mixing—creates the near-even market split between sub-9°C and 18°C+ outcomes, though climatological September averages (lows near 14–16°C) align more closely with the central probabilities around 13–15°C. Updated runs overnight will refine these thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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