Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's overnight low on August 26 near 17–19 °C, consistent with the long-term average of 18.5 °C for the date. Light southwesterly winds of 5–15 km/h, dew points near 9–10 °C, and partly cloudy skies support moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs around 28 °C, with limited cloud cover preventing strong warming. The tightly clustered market probabilities around 14–17 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by small differences in forecast wind speeds, timing of any increased cloudiness, and local urban heat-island effects that can alter overnight temperature drops by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 26?
17°C 35%
14°C or below 33%
16°C 31%
18°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
33%
15°C
23%
16°C
31%
17°C
35%
18°C
27%
19°C
25%
20°C
21%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
<1%
17°C 35%
14°C or below 33%
16°C 31%
18°C 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
33%
15°C
$6 Vol.
23%
16°C
$0 Vol.
31%
17°C
$0 Vol.
35%
18°C
$0 Vol.
27%
19°C
$0 Vol.
25%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$445 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$5 Vol.
1%
23°C
$5 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$140 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's overnight low on August 26 near 17–19 °C, consistent with the long-term average of 18.5 °C for the date. Light southwesterly winds of 5–15 km/h, dew points near 9–10 °C, and partly cloudy skies support moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs around 28 °C, with limited cloud cover preventing strong warming. The tightly clustered market probabilities around 14–17 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by small differences in forecast wind speeds, timing of any increased cloudiness, and local urban heat-island effects that can alter overnight temperature drops by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$602End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's overnight low on August 26 near 17–19 °C, consistent with the long-term average of 18.5 °C for the date. Light southwesterly winds of 5–15 km/h, dew points near 9–10 °C, and partly cloudy skies support moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs around 28 °C, with limited cloud cover preventing strong warming. The tightly clustered market probabilities around 14–17 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by small differences in forecast wind speeds, timing of any increased cloudiness, and local urban heat-island effects that can alter overnight temperature drops by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$602End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models project Madrid's overnight low on August 26 near 17–19 °C, consistent with the long-term average of 18.5 °C for the date. Light southwesterly winds of 5–15 km/h, dew points near 9–10 °C, and partly cloudy skies support moderate radiative cooling after daytime highs around 28 °C, with limited cloud cover preventing strong warming. The tightly clustered market probabilities around 14–17 °C reflect genuine uncertainty in the precise minimum, driven by small differences in forecast wind speeds, timing of any increased cloudiness, and local urban heat-island effects that can alter overnight temperature drops by 1–2 °C. Updated model runs and AEMET guidance expected in the next 24 hours will likely resolve the narrow spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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